Assessing impact of climate change on forest cover type shifts in Western Himalayan Eco-region

Abstract

Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services. Effects of climate change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including dimensions of climate (temperature, precipitation, drought, wind etc.). Available information is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the ecological, social and economic consequences. The present study assessed shifts in forest cover types of Western Himalayan Eco-region (700–4500 m). 100 randomly selected samples (75 for training and 25 for testing the model), genetic algorithm of rule set parameters and climatic envelopes were used to assess the distribution of five prominent forest cover types (Temperate evergreen, Tropical semi-evergreen, Temperate conifer, Subtropical conifer, and Tropical moist deciduous forests). Modelling was conducted for four different scenarios, current scenario, changed precipitation (8% increase), changed temperature (1.07°C increase), and both changed temperature and precipitation. On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was observed, while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer showed no shift. On increasing temperature, an upward shift in all forest types was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests without significant changes. When both temperature and precipitation were changed, the actual distribution was maintained and slight upward shift was observed in all the forest types except sub-tropical conifer. It is important to understand the likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems, so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for the biodiversity and forest dependent community. Knowledge of impact mechanisms also enables identification and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.

Keywords

Climate change / forest cover types / shift / western Himalaya / genetic algorithm

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