Forestland prediction of China based on forest ecosystem services for the first half of 21st century

Abstract

A new model was developed to predict forestland demand of China during the years of 2010–2050 in terms of the concept of forest ecosystem services. On the basis of the relationship between forest ecosystem services and classified forest management, we hypothesized that the ecological-forest provides ecological services, whereas commercial-forest supplies wood and timber production, and the influences of the growth of population, social-economic development target, forest management methods and the technology changes on forest resources were also taken into account. The prediction reveals that the demand of total forestland of China will be 244.8, 261.2 and 362.2 million ha by the year 2010, 2020 and 2050, respectively. The results demonstrated that China will be confronted with a shortage of forest resources, especially with lack of ecological-oriented forests, in the future. It is suggested that sustainable management of forest resources must be reinforced and more attention should be drown no enhancing the service function of forest ecosystem.

Keywords

forest resources / forest ecosystem services / forestland prediction / commercial forest / ecological forest / timber demand / ecological demand

References

[1] Apsey M., Reed L. World timber resources outlook, current perceptions: a discussion paper, 1995 2nd ed Canada: COFI

[2] Bazett M. 2000. Long-term changes in the location and structure of forest industries. The World Bank/WWF Alliance/Council on Foreign Relations Global Vision Research Project. Washington, D.C.

[3] Costanza R., Arge R., Groot R. The value of the world’s ecosystems services and natural capital Nature, 1997, 386: 253-260.

[4] Daily G. Daily G. What are ecosystem services? Nature’s Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems, 1997 Washington, D.C: Island Press 1-10.

[5] FAO. State of the world’s forests, 1997 Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

[6] FAO. State of the world’s forests, 1999 Rome, Italy: Report of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

[7] Hetemäki L, Obersteiner M. 2001. US newsprint demand forecasts to 2020. Interim Reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Available at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/ (viewed on December 21, 2001)

[8] Hong JS, Han J, Huang J, Hou Y, Wen M, Chen Y, Li Y, Zhou X. 2003. Demonstration and theory of forest sustainable development. Project completion technical report for demonstration of sustainable management of tropical forest. ITTO Project in Hainan, China. Haikou.

[9] ITTO Project. 1999. China’s forest product consumption and its demand for the market of international tropical forest products by 2010. Available at http://www.itto.or.jp/

[10] Janse G., Ottitsch A. Factors influencing the role of non-wood forest products and services Forest Policy and Economics, 2005, 7: 309-319.

[11] Jansson A., Hammer M., Folke C., Costanza R. Investing in natural capital: the ecological approach to sustainability, 1994 New York: Island Press

[12] Lang G, Cathy Hiu Wan Chan. 2005. The impact of China on southeast Asian forests. Southeast Asia Research Centre Working Paper Series, No. 77.

[13] Li W., Ouyang Z., Zhao J. Researches on ecosystem service function, 2002 Beijing, China: Meteorological Press

[14] Li W., Zhao J. The review and prospect of ecology, 2004 Beijing: Meteorological Press

[15] Nilsson S. Do we have enough forests?, 1996 Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

[16] Research Group on the Strategy for Modernization in Chinathe China Center for Modernization Research. The China Modernization Report 2004, 2004 Beijing, China: Peking University Press

[17] Research Group on the Strategy for Sustainable Forestry Development of China. Outline of Forestry Sustainable Development, 2003 Beijing, China: Chinese Forestry Publishing House

[18] Sedjo R, Lyon Am Kenneth S. 1995. A global pulpwood supply model and some implications. Final report to IIED; Resources for the Future. Washington, D.C.

[19] Solberg B. Long-term trends and prospects in world supply and demand for wood and implications for sustainable forest management: a synthesis, 1996 Joensuu, Finland: European Forest Institute and Norwegian Forest Research Institute

[20] Shi K., Li Z., Lin F., Zheng R. The development of China’s forestry: review and prospects, 1998 Beijing: Chinese Environment Press

[21] State Council of People’s Republic of China. 2003. Decision on rapid forest industry development. Available at http://www.forestry.gov.cn/

[22] Subhrendu K.P., Butry D.T. Sills E. O., Abt K. L. Forest ecosystem services as production inputs Forests in a market economy, 2003 Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers 361-378.

[23] Wang Chunfeng. 2005. Afforestation in China. Available at http://www.utoronto.ca/cccs2002/

[24] Wang S., Kooten G.C., Wilson B. Mosaic of reform: forest policy in post-1978 China Forest Policy and Economics, 2004, 6(1): 71-83.

[25] WRI Taking stock of forest ecosystems World Resources 2000–2001 People and Ecosystems: The Fraying Web of Life, 2000 Washington D.C: World Resources Institute 87-102.

[26] Yan Y., Zhao J.Z., Deng H.B., Luo Q.S. Predicting China’s cultivated land resources and supporting capacity in the twenty-first century International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 2006, 13: 1-13.

[27] Youngquist J., Hamilton T.E. A look at the world’s timber resources and processing facilities Proceedings of the XXI IUFRO WORLD CONGRESS, 2000 Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur 183-194.

[28] Zhang P., Shao G., Zhao G., Le Master D.C., Parker G.R., Dunning J.B., Li Q. Ecology: China’s forest policy for the 21st century Science, 2000, 288: 2135-2136.

[29] Zhou S. Historical transformation of Chinese forestry, 2002 Beijing, China: Chinese Forestry Publishing House

[30] Zhu Yunzhong. 2004. China’s energy demand scenarios to 2020. In: Proceedings of Workshop for China’s Energy Demand. Beijing Energy Efficiency Center.

[31] Zhu QZ, Wu HF. 2003. The cultural role and perception of agriculture in China. In: the Roles of Agriculture International Conference. Rome, Italy.