Simulating responses of Northeastern China forests to potential climate change

Abstract

A simulation study on the responses of forests in Northeastern China to possible climate change was done by running NEWCOP, a computer model of forest stands “gap” dynamics with a set of parameters of 24 tree species. Based on the simulation, climate change will continue to make coniferous trees less and less and deciduous trees more and more. By the end of 100a transient process and 100a equilibrium climate period, forest biomass is reduced by a total of 6,531 million t dry material for the whole region of NE China. There is only a small area in the north on which there stands more biomass than without climate change. Korean pine will be first tree species which decrease by the most amount. In the northern part of NE China, oak forest will cover much more area with climate change and the larch forest may cover less area than it does at present. In the middle part areas, coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest will remain, but the portion of deciduous species in composition of forest will increase. In the southem part areas, Korean pine will become companion tree species and its distribution area will greatly decrease.

References

[1] Bonan G.B., Shugart H.H., Urban D.L.. The sensitivity of some high-latitude boreal forests to climatic parameters. Climatic Change, 1990, 16(1): 9-29.

[2] Botkin D.B., et al. Some ecological consequences of a computer model of forest growth. J. Ecol., 1972, 60: 849-872.

[3] Lin Fen. Forests of Inner Mongolia. 1989, Beijing: Chinese Forestry Press (in Chinese)

[4] Leemans, R. & Cramer, W. 1990. The IIASA climate database for land area on a grid of 0.5(resolution. WP. 41 Laxenburg, Austria.

[5] Wenhua Li. Studies on biomass of main type ecosystems on Changbai Mt.. Research of Forest Ecosystems. 1981, Bejing: Chinese forestry Press, 34 50 (in Chinese)

[6] Pastor J., Post W.M.. Response of northern forests to CO2-induced climate change. Nature, 1988, 334(6177): 55-58.

[7] Schlesinger M.E., Mitchell J.F.B.. Climate model simulations of the equilibrium climatic response to increased carbon dioxide. Rev. of Geo., 1987, 25: 760-789.

[8] Shao Guofan. 1989. KOPIDE- A forest computer model of broad-leaved korean-pine forest. Ph.D. Thesis. (in Chinese)

[9] Shugart H.H.. A Theory of Forest Dynamics. 1984, New York: Springer-Verlag

[10] Shugart H.H.. Using ecosystem models to assess potential consequences of global climatic change. Trends in Ecol. and Evol., 1990, 5: 303-307.

[11] Shugart H.H., et al. Development of an appalachian deciduous forest succession model and its application to assessment of impact of the chestnut blight. J. Environ. Mgmt., 1977, 5: 161-179.

[12] Smith T.M., Shugart H.H.. The transient response of terrestrial carbon storage to a perturbed climate. Nature, 1993, 361(6412): 523-526.

[13] US Country Studies Program. 1994. Guidance for vulnerability and adaptation assesents. Washintong D.C.

[14] Zhengyi Wu. Vegetation of China. 1980, Beijing: Science Press (in Chinese)

[15] Zhenbang Xu. A study on bio-productivites of Changbai Mountain broad-leaved Korean pine forests. Research of Forest Ecosystems. 1985, Beijing: Chinese forestry Press, 33 46 (in Chinese)

[16] Xiaodong Yan, Shidong Zhao. CHANGFOR: A siimulation model for growth and succession of Changbai Mt. Forest. Chinese Acta of Ecology, 1995, 14(B): 12-21.

[17] Xiaodong Yan, Shidong Zhao. Simulating the response of Changbai Mt. Forests to Potential Climate Change. J. Environ. Sci., 1996, 8(3): 354-366.

[18] Yan Xiaodong, et al. 1996. Simulating effects of climate change on Xiaoxing'an Mt. forests of China. In: Proceedings of the sympoium on resources, environment, and sustainable development In NE Asia and its adjacent regions, Shenyang, pp149–153.

[19] Shidong Zhao, Xiaodong Yan. Some advance in study on responses of northeastern China forests to possible climate changes. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 1995, 15(B): 1-11. (in Chinese)