Simulating deforestation of Nepal by area production model

Abstract

Based on the growth rates of population, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and agriculture productivity, the areas of deforestation were predicted in Jutpani Village, Chitwan district, Nepal by Area Production Model (APM). Through the APM simulation in this study, all of forestland will be transferred into agricultural land in 2030 at the rate of 24% per year on the current productivity. And if the productivity of subsistence food crop is assumed to increase at the rate of 1%, the productivity of market crop and export crop increase at the rate of 2% annually, deforestation rate will decrease to 17% per year, but only 124 hm² forest land will be left till 2038. The agriculture productivity is a very important factor for the deforestation, so intensification of agriculture management is more important.

Keywords

Area Production Model (APM) / Simulation, deforestation / Gross Domestic Products (GDP) / Subsistence food crop / Market food crop / S711 / A