Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Basin under Environmental Change

Abstract

Climate change and economic development impact the population expansion and water shortage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MYRB), leading directly to drought aggravation-expansion and impacting agricultural production in the MYRB. Therefore, this study quantitatively evaluated agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB based on the variable fuzzy evaluation model (VFEM). The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The arable land in the MYRB gradually decreased between 2005 and 2020, whereas the forest cover decreased and then increased; (2) precipitation and evapotranspiration were the key factors affecting the agricultural drought vulnerability (e.g., weights of 0.24 and 0.21), whereas arable land density and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita played less significant roles; and (3) the agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB during 2005–2020 was mainly at level 3 and below, with higher drought vulnerability in the western and northern regions, which had a higher drought risk potential.

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