The Jevons Paradox and Vernon’s Product Life Cycle: Evidence from Primary-Secondary Price Differentials in Copper and Aluminium (2002-2021) with 2024-2025 Market Context

Abstract

This study examines how efficiency improvements associated with Jevons’ Paradox and product-system maturation, as described by Vernon’s Product Life Cycle (PLC), jointly influence the long-term pricing relationship between primary and recycled copper and aluminium. Using author-provided nominal annual USD price series for 2002-2021, the analysis derives descriptive indicators most notably the recycled-to-primary (R/P) price ratio to characterize structural shifts consistent with PLC-driven secondary integration. Recent market conditions in 2024-2025, including tight physical availability, low inventories, regional premia, and recurrent episodes of backwardation, are incorporated as qualitative context without merging with the historical dataset. Results indicate a sustained narrowing of R/P discounts for both metals by 2021. The combined Jevons-PLC interpretation suggests that efficiency-driven service expansion and supply-side tightness increase the relative value of secondary material, supporting long-term convergence between primary and recycled streams.

Keywords

Jevons paradox / Vernon product life cycle / Copper / Aluminum / Recycling / Circular economy / Rebound effect / Resource efficiency

Statement of the Use of Generative AI and AI-Assisted Technologies in the Writing Process

During the preparation of this manuscript, the author used ChatGPT and Manus in order to support the translation into English and stylistic refinement of the text. After using these tools, the author reviewed and edited the content as needed and takes full responsibility for the content of the published article.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, A.A.-J. and M.R.y.G.-B.; Methodology, A.A.-J.; Software, E.Á.; Validation, A.A.-J., M.R.y.G.-B. and E.Á.; Formal Analysis, A.A.-J.; Investigation, A.A.-J. and E.Á.; Resources, M.R.y.G.-B.; Data Curation, E.Á. and A.A.-J.; Writing Original Draft Preparation, A.A.-J.; Writing Review & Editing, M.R.y.G.-B., E.Á. and L.A.-C.; Visualization, E.Á. and A.A.-J.; Supervision, M.R.y.G.-B.; Project Administration, A.A.-J.; Funding Acquisition, Not applicable.

Ethics Statement

This study uses an author-provided historical price dataset and publicly referenced market context; no human or animal subjects were involved.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The 2002-2021 price table is author-provided and reproducible from the manuscript’s figures. 2024-2025 indicators are descriptive references to exchange tables and reputable newswire reports.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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