Repurposed Ovens for Space Heating Following Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss: Methods and Efficiency Calculations

Abstract

Global catastrophic infrastructure loss (GCIL) would disrupt energy supply networks, prohibiting heating in houses reliant on electricity or piped natural gas. In such situations, buildings in cold climates would require alternative heating methods, as space heating is critical to survival. This work assesses the viability of converting household appliances to wood-burning stoves and the scalability of such conversions in the event of a catastrophe. A standard residential electrical oven was converted to a wood-burning stove, using tools and materials likely to be readily available following GCIL, and tested by burning a total of 9.1 kg of pine wood and kindling. The conversion was successful, with an average useful heat output of 2.6 kW, showing the viability of ovens as wood-burning stoves for space heating. It is expected that such conversions could be completed in under one day, given sufficient availability of tools, materials, and labour. Global supplies of ovens, tools, materials, and fuel are expected to be sufficient for widespread conversion of ovens to wood-burning stoves, assuming international collaboration. However, international collaboration may be limited following GCIL, so countries should develop individual response plans accounting for this limitation, and knowledge should be disseminated ahead of time, or backup communication systems put in place.

Keywords

Alternative heating / Catastrophe resilience / Energy systems / Existential risk / Global catastrophic risk

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the University of Canterbury Fire Laboratory and especially Grant Dunlop. This work was funded in part by the Strategic Research Fund from the University of Canterbury.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, D.D.; Methodology, L.J., M.R., D.D.; Investigation, L.J., M.R.; Resources, D.D.; Data Curation, B.K.-W.; Writing—Original Draft Preparation, B.K.-W.; Writing—Review & Editing, L.J., M.R., B.K.-W., C.H., D.D.; Visualization, B.K.-W., C.H.; Supervision, B.K.-W., D.D.

Ethics Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

Data will be made available on request.

Funding

This research was funded by the Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) and the University of Canterbury Strategic Research Fund.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

References

[1] Moersdorf J, Rivers M, Denkenberger D, Breuer L, Jehn FU. The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario. Glob. Chall. 2024, 8, 2300206.

[2] Bostrom N. Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards. J Evol. Technol. 2002, 9. Available online: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:827452c3-fcba-41b8-86b0-407293e6617c (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[3] Cole DD, Denkenberger D, Griswold M, Abdelkhaliq M, Pearce J.Feeding Everyone If Industry Is Disabled. In Proceedings of the IDRC DAVOS 2016 Integrative Risk Management-Towards Resilient Cities, Davos, Switzerland, 28 August-1 September 2016.

[4] Mörsdorf J. Simulating Potential Yield If Industry Is Disabled: Applying a Generalized Linear Modelling Approach to Major Food Crops. Master Thesis, Justus-Liebig University, Giessen, Germany, 2021.

[5] Denkenberger DC, Cole DD, Abdelkhaliq M, Griswold M, Hundley AB, Pearce JM. Feeding Everyone If the Sun Is Obscured and Industry Is Disabled. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2017, 21, 284-290.

[6] Isaacs N, Camilleri M, Burrough L, Pollard A, Saville-Smith K, Fraser R, et al. Energy Use in New Zealand Households: Final Report on the Household Energy End-Use Project (Heep). Available online: https://d39d3mj7qio96p.cloudfront.net/media/documents/SR221_Energy_use_in_New_Zealand_Households_-_final_HEEP_report.pdf (accessed on 30 June 2025).

[7] United States Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS); U.S. Department of Commerce: Washington, DC, USA, 2022.

[8] Zheng G, Bu W. Review of Heating Methods for Rural Houses in China. Energies 2018, 11, 3402.

[9] Renaldi R, Hall R, Jamasb T, Roskilly AP. Experience Rates of Low-Carbon Domestic Heating Technologies in the United Kingdom. Energy Policy 2021, 156, 112387.

[10] Fraboni R, Grazieschi G, Pezzutto S, Mitterrutzner B, Wilczynski E. Environmental Assessment of Residential Space Heating and Cooling Technologies in Europe: A Review of 11 European Member States. Sustainability 2023, 15, 4288.

[11] Havenith G, den Hartog E, Heus R.Moisture Accumulation in Sleeping Bags at -  7 °C and -  20 °C in Relation to Cover Material and Method of Use. Ergonomics 2004, 47, 1424-1431. doi:10.1080/00140130410001704428.

[12] Kim H-K, Kang G-C, Moon J-P, Lee T-S, Oh S-S. Estimation of Thermal Performance and Heat Loss in Plastic Greenhouses with and without Thermal Curtains. Energies 2018, 11, 578.

[13] Zhang X, Sun Z, Ashcroft T, Dozier M, Ostrishko K, Krishan P, et al. Compact Cities and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Systematic Review of the Associations between Transmission of COVID-19 or Other Respiratory Viruses and Population Density or Other Features of Neighbourhood Design. Health Place 2022, 76, 102827.

[14] Pollitt MG. The Energy Market in Time of War; Center on Regulation in Europe (CERRE): Brussels, Belgium, 2022.

[15] Zakeri B, Paulavets K, Barreto-Gomez L, Echeverri LG, Pachauri S, Boza-Kiss B, et al. Pandemic,War, and Global Energy Transitions. Energies 2022, 15, 6114.

[16] AS 1681-2002; Safety Requirements for Electrically Heated Type 1 Ovens in Which Flammable Volatiles Occur. Standards Australia: Sydney, Australia, 2002.

[17] Cotton‐Barratt O, Daniel M, Sandberg A. Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter. Glob Policy 2020, 11, 271-282. doi:10.1111/1758-5899.12786.

[18] Throup J, Martínez JBG, Bals B, Cates J, Pearce JM, Denkenberger DC. Rapid Repurposing of Pulp and Paper Mills, Biorefineries, and Breweries for Lignocellulosic Sugar Production in Global Food Catastrophes. Food Bioprod. Process. 2022, 131, 22-39.

[19] Martínez JBG, Egbejimba J, Throup J, Matassa S, Pearce JM, Denkenberger DC. Potential of Microbial Protein from Hydrogen for Preventing Mass Starvation in Catastrophic Scenarios. Sustain. Prod. Consum. 2021, 25, 234-247.

[20] García Martínez JB, Pearce JM, Throup J, Cates J, Lackner M, Denkenberger DC. Methane Single Cell Protein: Potential to Secure a Global Protein Supply against Catastrophic Food Shocks. Front Bioeng. Biotechnol. 2022, 10, 906704.

[21] Jehn FU, Dingal FJ, Mill A, Harrison C, Ilin E, Roleda MY, et al. Seaweed as a Resilient Food Solution after a Nuclear War. Earths Future 2024, 12, e2023EF003710.

[22] Denkenberger D, Pearce JM. Micronutrient Availability in Alternative Foods During Agricultural Catastrophes. Agriculture 2018, 8, 169. doi:10.3390/agriculture8110169.

[23] Pham A, García Martínez JB, Brynych V, Stormbjorne R, Pearce JM, Denkenberger DC. Nutrition in Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios: Envisioning Feasible Balanced Diets on Resilient Foods. Nutrients 2022, 14, 492.

[24] Varne AR, Blouin S, Williams BLM, Denkenberger D. The Impact of Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios on Renewable Energy Production. Energies 2024, 17, 5147.

[25] Williams B, Feng X, Lamilla Cuellar J, Peterson R, Denkenberger D.Protection of Subterranean Water Infrastructure in an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario 2025. Available online: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/9098/ (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[26] Williams BLM, Croft H, Hunt J, Viloria J, Sherman N, Oliver J, et al. Wood Gasification in Catastrophes: Electricity Production from Light-Duty Vehicles. Energy Eng. 2025, 122, 1-10. doi:10.32604/ee.2025.063276.

[27] García Martínez JB, Behr J, Pearce J, Denkenberger D. Resilient Foods for Preventing Global Famine: A Review of Food Supply Interventions for Global Catastrophic Food Shocks Including Nuclear Winter and Infrastructure Collapse. Crit. Rev. Food Sci. Nutr. 2025, 65, 1-27. doi:10.1080/10408398.2024.2431207.

[28] Kanury AM. Heat Transfer Analysis of a Domestic, Wood-Burning, “Heat-Circulating” Fireplace. Energy 1979, 4, 277-285.

[29] Martinopoulos G, Papakostas KT, Papadopoulos AM. A Comparative Review of Heating Systems in EU Countries, Based on Efficiency and Fuel Cost. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2018, 90, 687-699.

[30] Modera MP, Sonderegger RC. Determination of In-Situ Performance of Fireplaces; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL): Berkeley, CA, USA, 1980.

[31] Vogel M. Heating with Wood: Principles of Combustion; Human resource development-Montana State University, Cooperative Extension Service (USA): Montguide, MT, USA, 1984.

[32] Eurostove.WF 15, 16, 20 and 21 Glass. 2023. Available online: https://www.eurostove.co.uk/wf-15-glass (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[33] GE Appliances. Wall Ovens and Ranges—Types of Oven Interiors. 2023. Available online: https://products.geappliances.com/appliance/gea-support-search-content?contentId=18269 (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[34] Statista.Household Ownership Rate of Major Appliances in Selected Countries Worldwide in 2023. 2024. Available online: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1117972/major-appliances-ownership-selected-countries/ (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[35] Cabeza LF, Ürge-Vorsatz D, Palacios A, Ürge D, Serrano S, Barreneche C. Trends in Penetration and Ownership of Household Appliances. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2018, 82, 4044-4059.

[36] Ayo SA. Design, Construction and Testing of an Improved Wood Stove. Assumpt. Univ. (AU) J. Technol. 2009, 13, 12-18.

[37] Elshamy A. Condensation of Flue Gases in Boilers. J. Sci. Technol. 2006, 11, 185-190.

[38] Kocbach Bølling A, Pagels J, Yttri KE, Barregard L, Sallsten G, Schwarze PE, et al. Health Effects of Residential Wood Smoke Particles: The Importance of Combustion Conditions and Physicochemical Particle Properties. Part. Fibre Toxicol. 2009, 6, 29. doi:10.1186/1743-8977-6-29.

[39] Pham X-H, Piriou B, Salvador S, Valette J, Van de Steene L. Oxidative Pyrolysis of Pine Wood, Wheat Straw and Miscanthus Pellets in a Fixed Bed. Fuel Process. Technol. 2018, 178, 226-235.

[40] Statista.Median Size of Single-Family Housing Unit in the United States from 2000 to 2022. 2023. Available online: https://www.statista.com/statistics/529371/floor-area-size-new-single-family-homes-usa/ (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[41] Learn Metrics HVAC Systems. Heating BTU Calculator: How Many BTUs Per Square Foot? 2023. Available online: https://learnmetrics.com/heating-btu-calculator/ (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[42] Williams BLM, Hooper RJ, Gnoth D, Chase JG. Residential Electricity Demand Modelling: Validation of a Behavioural Agent-Based Approach. Energies 2025, 18, 1314. doi:10.3390/en18061314.

[43] Kamana-Williams BLM, Gnoth D, Hooper RJ, Chase JG. A Generalisable Agent-Based Model of Residential Electricity Demand for Load Forecasting and Demand Response Management. Int. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 2025, 168, 110671. doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2025.110671.

[44] Howden-Chapman P, Viggers H, Chapman R, O’Dea D, Free S, O’Sullivan K. Warm Homes: Drivers of the Demand for Heating in the Residential Sector in New Zealand. Energy Policy 2009, 37, 3387-3399. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.12.023.

[45] Kamana-Williams B, Hooper RJ, Silk J, Gnoth D, Chase JG. Peak Loads, Health, and Energy Equality: The Effects of Demand-Side Electricity Efficiency Interventions 2025. Available online: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/9211/(accessed on 2 May 2025).

[46] Mishra V. Effect of Indoor Air Pollution from Biomass Combustion on Prevalence of Asthma in the Elderly. Environ. Health Perspect. 2003, 111, 71-78.

[47] Ezzati M, Kammen DM. Indoor Air Pollution from Biomass Combustion and Acute Respiratory Infections in Kenya: An Exposure-Response Study. Lancet 2001, 358, 619-624.

[48] Sarigiannis DΑ, Karakitsios SP, Zikopoulos D, Nikolaki S, Kermenidou M. Lung Cancer Risk from PAHs Emitted from Biomass Combustion. Environ. Res. 2015, 137, 147-156.

[49] de Koning HW, Smith KR, Last JM. Biomass Fuel Combustion and Health. Bull. World Health Organ. 1985, 63, 11-26.

[50] Vicente ED, Alves CA. An Overview of Particulate Emissions from Residential Biomass Combustion. Atmos. Res. 2018, 199, 159-185.

[51] National Fire Protection Association.NFPA 211: Standard for Chimneys, Fireplaces, Vents, and Solid Fuel-Burning Appliances. 2022 Edition; National Fire Protection Association (NFPA): Quincy, MA, USA, 2022.

[52] Worldometer. Current World Population. 2024. Available online: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/ (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[53] World Population Review.Family Size by Country 2024. 2024. Available online: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/family-size-by-country (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[54] U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) Data; U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Washington, DC, USA, 2016. Available online: https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2015/ (accessed on 30 June 2025).

[55] African Development Bank. A Comparison of Real Household Consumption Expenditures and Price Levels in Africa; African Development Bank: Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, 2012.

[56] National Bureau of Statistics of China.China Statistical Yearbook 2020; National Bureau of Statistics of China: Beijing, China, 2021.

[57] United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Main Figures of Latin American and the Caribbean; United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC): Santiago, Chile, 2024.

[58] McElroy Metal.Why 18% of Homeowners Choose Metal Roofing. 2023. Available online: https://blog.mcelroymetal.com/metal-roofing-and-siding/why-18-percent-of-homeowners-choose-metal-roofing (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[59] Statistics New Zealand. New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings; Statistics New Zealand: Wellington, New Zealand, 2018.

[60] Maximize Market Research. Tin Snips Tool Market: Industry Analysis and Forecast (2023-2029). 2022. Available online: https://www.maximizemarketresearch.com/market-report/tin-snips-tool-market/216573/ (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[61] DepreciationRates. net.ATO Depreciation Rates 2021: Oven. 2021. Available online: https://www.depreciationrates.net.au/oven (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[62] Steetz. Stubai Combination Tin Snips with Finger Guard. 2024. Available online: https://steetz.com/shop/combination-tin-snips-with-finger-guard/ (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[63] Valuates Reports. Report Size, Worth, Revenue, Growth, Industry Value,Wire Cutter Market, Share 2024. 2024. Available online: https://reports.valuates.com/market-reports/QYRE-Auto-33M7872/global-wire-clippers (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[64] Lauzier J. Identify and Reduce Tool Wear to Improve Quality. 2024. Available online: https://www.machinemetrics.com/blog/tool-wear (accessed on 2 May 2025).

[65] Denkenberger D, Sandberg A, Tieman RJ, Pearce JM. Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions for Loss of Electricity/Industry Compared to Artificial General Intelligence Safety. Eur. J. Futures Res. 2021, 9, 11.

[66] Dinca C. Critical Parametric Study of Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion with CO₂ Chemical Absorption Process Using Different Aqueous Alkanolamines. J. Clean. Prod. 2016, 112, 1136-1149.