Systematic innovation corridor design for China–Central Asia cross-border e-commerce

Abstract

Cross-border e-commerce decisions in emerging corridors often require firms and public partners to choose among platform entry, warehouse investment, payment integration, and local service building before complete country-level online transaction statistics are available. This article develops a systematic innovation corridor design method (SICDM) for China–Central Asia cross-border e-commerce, subject to official data constraints. The method combines auditable trade and digital-readiness evidence with a Theory of the Solution of Inventive Problems-informed contradiction map, Lanchester resource-position logic, and multi-criteria corridor prioritization. Reported partner-country imports from China are used as an official trade benchmark, not as a direct e-commerce turnover metric. The empirical base is a balanced official-data panel covering Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan from 2018 to 2023, using the World Integrated Trade Solution/United Nations Comtrade trade data and World Development Indicators. A digital readiness index is constructed from internet use, mobile cellular subscriptions, and secure internet servers; the first principal component explains 78.8% of the variance in information and communication technology. An entropy-weighted technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution and a reduced-form panel diagnostic illustrate how official evidence can support corridor comparison without estimating hidden platform sales. Within the 2023 decision matrix, the SICDM classifies Kazakhstan as a consolidation anchor, Uzbekistan as a staged-scaling corridor, the Kyrgyz Republic as a gateway corridor, and Tajikistan as a frontier pilot. The contribution is not a new estimate of cross-border e-commerce turnover, but a reproducible, systematic innovation tool for translating incomplete evidence into corridor-specific contradictions, innovation opportunities, and resource-sequencing actions.

Keywords

Innovation opportunity identification / Cross-border e-commerce / Theory of the solution of inventive problems / Lanchester strategy / Corridor design

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