Demographic transition and opportunities for development in Bangladesh from 1971 to 2100

Abstract

There is significant variation in estimates and assumptions about Bangladesh’s demographic trajectory, highlighting the need for reassessment. This study primarily utilizes data from the 2022 Revision of the World Population Prospects to examine the demographic transition in Bangladesh and highlight a key window of opportunity. It provides a comprehensive examination of population structure, fertility, mortality, and labor force participation to contextualize the transition stages. The analysis underscores that the theory of demographic transition cannot be applied universally as a “one-size-fits-all” model. The study demonstrates that, by analyzing the common features associated with the demographic transition, including birth rates, death rates, and population trends, a country can determine its specific stage in the transition process. In the case of Bangladesh, while categorized as a lower-middle-income nation, it has reached the fourth stage of demographic transition as of 2020. This is a notable development, as many lower-middle-income countries remain in earlier stages of transition. The study emphasizes that the period from 2020 to 2037 is critical for Bangladesh to realize the maximum demographic dividend. This opportunity hinges on ensuring that the working-age population has access to quality healthcare, education, and employment opportunities. The study also underscores the importance of creating employment opportunities, with a particular emphasis on increasing female labor force participation and skill development, as well as integrating socioeconomic, cultural, and gender considerations into demographic analyses. In addition, proactive planning for an aging population post-2037 is crucial to maintaining the demographic dividend and addressing economic and social challenges. Harnessing this window wisely will determine Bangladesh’s long-term socioeconomic resilience and sustainable development trajectory.

Keywords

Bangladesh / Demographic transition / Demographic window of opportunity / Demographic dividend / Population pyramid

Funding

None.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

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