This study addresses the challenge of predicting zinc (Zn) recovery from carbonate ores via sodium hydroxide (NaOH) leaching. This complex process influenced by variable ore composition, surface passivation effects, and nonlinear reaction dynamics, which complicate reagent optimization and process control in hydrometallurgical operations. To tackle this, a dataset containing 422 experimental observations was compiled from previous studies, incorporating ore composition and process parameters, such as NaOH concentration, leaching time, temperature, and solid-to-liquid ratio. Four regression models (decision tree, neural network, generalized additive model, and random forest) were trained and evaluated using performance metrics, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and symmetrical mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE). Among these, the random forest model achieved the best predictive accuracy, with R2 value of 0.8541 on the test set and the lowest error rates, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing the complex relationships between input variables and Zn recovery. Explainable artificial intelligence, particularly SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, revealed that NaOH concentration, leaching time, and solid-to-liquid ratio had the most positive influence on Zn recovery, whereas elements such as Ca, Fe, and Pb had inhibitory effects. These findings align with known geochemical behavior and provide valuable insights for reagent optimization and process efficiency in leaching processes. This study demonstrates the practical potential of machine learning in mineral processing, offering a scalable framework for optimizing Zn recovery from non-sulfide ores and a data-driven approach to enhance decision-making in hydrometallurgical applications.
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