Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the North China Plain Earthquake Belt: Sensitivity of Seismic Source Models and Ground Motion Prediction Equations

Abstract

In this study, a multi-source data fusion method was proposed for the development of a Hybrid seismic hazard model (HSHM) in China by using publicly available data of the 5th Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map (NSGM) and historical seismic catalogues and integrating with modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). This model incorporates the characteristics of smoothed seismicity and areal sources for regional seismic hazard assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard for the North China Plain earthquake belt was investigated through sensitivity analysis related to the seismicity model and GMPEs. The analysis results indicate that the Hybrid model can produce a consistent result with the NSGM model in many cases. However, the NSGM model tends to overestimate hazard values in locations where no major events have occurred and underestimate hazard values in locations where major events have occurred. The Hybrid model can mitigate the degree of such biases. Compared to the modern GMPEs, the GMPE with epicentral distance measures significantly underestimate the seismic hazard under near-field and large-magnitude scenarios. In addition, a comparison of the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) obtained by the models, with China’s design spectrum, shows that the current design spectrum is more conservative than the calculated UHS.

References

[1] AbrahamsonNA, SilvaWJ, KamaiR. Summary of the ASK14 ground motion relation for active crustal regions. Earthquake Spectra, 2014, 30: 1025-1055

[2] AvitalM, KamaiR, DavisM, DorO. The effect of alternative seismotectonic models on PSHA results – A sensitivity study for two sites in Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2018, 18(2): 499-514

[3] BakerJW, CornellCA. Correlation of response spectral values for multicomponent ground motions. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2006, 96(1): 215-227

[4] BommerJJ. On the use of logic trees for ground-motion prediction equations in seismic-hazard analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2005, 95: 377-389

[5] BooreDM, StewartJP, SeyhanE, AtkinsonGM. NGA-West2 equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes. Earthquake Spectra, 2014, 30: 1057-1085

[6] CampbellKW, BozorgniaY. NGA-West2 ground motion model for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra. Earthquake Spectra, 2014, 30: 1087-1115

[7] ChenK, GaoMT. Analysis on the uncertainty in ground motion zoning map of China. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2010, 32(2): 184-192 in Chinese)

[8] ChengJ, RongY, MagistraleH, ChenG, XuX. An Mw-based historical earthquake catalog for mainland China. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2017, 107: 2490-2500

[9] ChiouBSJ, YoungsRR. Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra. Earthquake Spectra, 2014, 30: 1117-1153

[10] CornellCA. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1968, 58: 1583-1606

[11] DangkuaDT, RongY, MagistraleH. Evaluation of NGA-West2 and Chinese ground-motion prediction equations for developing seismic hazard maps of mainland China. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2018, 108: 2422-2443

[12] FengC, LiuTJ, HongHP. Seismic hazard assessment for mainland China based on spatially smoothed seismicity. Journal of Seismology, 2020, 24: 613-633

[13] FieldEH, JacksonDD, DolanJF. A mutually consistent seismic-hazard source model for southem California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1999, 89(3): 559-578

[14] FrankelA. Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States. Seismological Research Letters, 1995, 66(4): 8-21

[15] GaoMT, LiXJ, XuXW. GB18306-2015: Introduction to the seismic hazard map of China, 2015 Beijing Standards Press of China (in Chinese)

[16] GodaK, AspinallW, TaylorCA. Seismic hazard analysis for the U.K.: Sensitivity to spatial seismicity modelling and ground motion prediction equations. Seismological Research Letters, 2013, 84: 112-129

[17] GuG. Catalogue of Chinese earthquake (1831 B. C–1969 A. D), 1983 Beijing Scientific Press (in Chinese)

[18] GülerceZ, VakilinezhadM. Effect of seismic source model parameters on the probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment results: A case study for the north Anatolian fault zone. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2015, 105(5): 2808-2822

[19] HaasM, AgnonA, BindiD, ParolaiS, PittoreM. Data-driven seismic-hazard models prepared for a seismic risk assessment in the Dead Sea region. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016, 106: 2584-2598

[20] HanksTC, KanamoriH. A moment magnitude scale. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 1979, 84: 2348-2350

[21] HiemerS, JacksonDD, WangQ, KaganYY, WoessnerJ, ZecharJD, WiemerS. A stochastic forecast of California earthquakes based on fault slip and smoothed seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2013, 103: 799-810

[22] HiemerS, WoessnerJ, BasiliR, DanciuL, GiardiniD, WiemerS. A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe. Geophysical Journal International, 2014, 198: 1159-1172

[23] HongHP, FengC. On the ground-motion models for Chinese seismic hazard mapping. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2019, 109: 2106-2124

[24] JennyS, GoesS, GiardiniD, KahleH. Earthquake recurrence parameters from seismic and geodetic strain rates in the eastern Mediterranean. Geophysical Journal International, 2004, 157: 1331-1347

[25] KaklamanosJ, BaiseLG, BooreDM. Estimating unknown input parameters when implementing the NGA ground-motion prediction equations in engineering practice. Earthquake Spectra, 2011, 27: 1219-1235

[26] LeeY, GrafW, HuZ. Characterizing the epistemic uncertainty in the USGS 2014 National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2018, 108: 1465-1480

[27] MalagniniL, AkinciA, LombardiAM, MuellerCS. Uncertainty analysis for seismic hazard in northern and central Italy. Annals of Geophysics, 2005

[28] McGuireRK. Deterministic vs probabilistic earthquake hazards and risks. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2001, 21(5): 377-384

[29] McGuireRK. Seismic hazard and risk analysis, 2004 Oakland Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

[30] MinZ, WuG, JiangZ, LiuC, YangY. The catalogue of Chinese historical strong earthquakes (B. C 2300–A. D 1911), 1995 Beijing Seismological Publishing House

[31] Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China. GB50011-2010: Code for seismic design of buildings, 2010 Beijing China Architecture & Building Press (in Chinese)

[32] PaganiM, MonelliD, WeatherillG, DanciuL, CrowleyH, SilvaV, HenshawP, ButlerL, et al. . OpenQuake Engine: An open hazard (and risk) software for the global earthquake model. Seismological Research Letters, 2014, 85: 692-702

[33] PanH, YanJ, HuY. Discussion about the relationship between seismic belt and seismic statistical zone. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2003, 16: 323-329 in Chinese)

[34] PanH, GaoMT, XieFR. The earthquake activity model and seismicity parameters in the new seismic hazard map of China. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, 2013, 8: 11-23 (in Chinese)

[35] PanchaA, AndersonJG, KreemerC. Comparison of seismic and geodetic scalar moment rates across the Basin and Range Province. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2006, 96: 11-32

[36] RongY, XuX, ChengJ, ChenG, MagistraleH, ShenZ. A probabilistic seismic hazard model for mainland China. Earthquake Spectra, 2020

[37] WangSY, WuY, ShiZL, LiQ, ZhaiWJ, GaoAJ, WuHY, GuoY, et al. . Brief introduction to the catalogue of recent Chinese earthquakes (1912–1990, M_S≥4.7). Earthquake Research in China, 1999, 1: 9-13 (in Chinese)

[38] WoessnerJ, LaurentiuD, GiardiniD, CrowleyH, CottonF, GrünthalG, ValensiseG, ArvidssonR, et al. . The 2013 European seismic hazard model: Key components and results. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2015, 13: 3553-3596

[39] WooG. Kernel estimation methods for seismic hazard area source modeling. Bulletin of the Seismological Soceity of America, 1996, 2: 353-362

[40] XieZJ, LvYJ, LanJY, XuDD. Research on the effects of statistical analysis of b-value and V4 and its uncertainty on seismic risk analysis result. Journal of Seismological Research, 2013, 36(1): 88-94 (in Chinese)

[41] XuW. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment using spatially smoothed seismicity in North China seismic zone. Journal of Seismology, 2019, 23(5): 613-622

[42] XuW, GaoM, ZuoH. Generation of a stochastic seismic event set based on a new seismicity model in China’s earthquake catastrophe model. Seismological Research Letters, 2021, 85(3): 692-702

[43] YuY, LiS, XiaoL. Development of ground motion attenuation relations for the new seismic hazard map of China. Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention No., 2013, 1: 24-33

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)