Fault reactivation and seismic risks induced by deep reservoir fracturing: Mechanisms, prediction and perspectives

Abstract

With the advancement of fracturing technologies in deeper and more geologically complex formations, fault reactivation and induced seismicity have attracted increasing attention. The increasing frequency and magnitude of these events underscore the need for a robust understanding of the governing physical mechanisms. Elevated pore pressure, modified fault-loading conditions, and aseismic slip are widely acknowledged as the primary drivers. Recent studies have explored these mechanisms under varying factors, including fluid properties, rock ductility, poroelastic responses, and evolving fault stress states, thereby offering critical insights into model refinement. Probabilistic forecasting approaches, which combine statistical analyses of historical data with real-time monitoring, are being increasingly adopted in seismic risk assessments. In parallel, machine learning techniques are employed to process large seismic datasets and identify key patterns. However, their predictive capabilities remain limited by geological heterogeneity, subsurface complexity, and scarce observational data. Moreover, fluid-rock interactions further complicate the development of universally applicable models, thereby constraining the generalizability of mitigation strategies. This review synthesizes the current understanding of induced seismicity mechanisms, evaluates the prevailing prediction and mitigation methods, and identifies major challenges and future research directions. Advancements in these areas are essential to enhancing seismic risk management and ensuring the safe, sustainable development of deep-subsurface energy resources.

Keywords

Fault reactivation / Induced seismicity / Fluid injection / Reservoir fracturing / Seismic risk prediction

Acknowledgements

This work was supported in part by the National Key Research and Development Project of China (No. 2022YFC3004602), and in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 52121003 and 52442406). The authors gratefully appreciate the constructive suggestions from the editors and the anonymous reviewers for improving this manuscript.

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