Deterministic cascade evolution in coal and gas outbursts: From early acoustic signatures to system-wide failure

Abstract

Coal and gas outbursts constitute a critical hazard in underground mining operations, characterized by rapid transitions from localized instability to catastrophic failure. Understanding the relationship between initial characteristics and final outburst scale remains a fundamental challenge in geomechanics. This study conceptualizes outbursts as deterministic cascade systems through integrated physical simulations combining high-sensitivity infrasound monitoring with energy analysis under controlled gas pressure (0.5-1.0 MPa) and confining stress (5-10 MPa) conditions. Our complementary analytical algorithms—the absolute amplitude integral and predominant period function—revealed characteristic step-wise patterns in outburst development. Quantitative analysis established a robust correlation (R²=0.91) between initial acoustic response and final outburst intensity. Energy analysis demonstrated that gas expansion dominates the outburst process (91.81%-99.09% of total energy), with desorption gas contributing 59.1%-77.7%. Time-frequency analysis showed systematic frequency migration from high (12-15 Hz) to low (4-8 Hz) bands during outburst progression, reflecting hierarchical spatial scale expansion. The concentrated energy release (>20% of total) within initial 0.2 s provides a mechanistic basis for the deterministic nature of outburst evolution. These mechanistic insights establish a quantitative framework for developing physics-based monitoring protocols and risk assessment methodologies applicable to underground coal mining operations.

Keywords

Coal and gas outburst / Energy analysis / Cascade / Infrasound / Gas desorption

Acknowledgments

This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China (No. 52464016), the Guizhou Provincial Foundation Research Project (No. QKHJC-[2024]Youth 141), the Guizhou Provincial Basic Research Program (No. MS[2025]632), and the Young Researcher Growth Project of Guizhou Provincial Depart-ment of Education (No. QJJ-[2024]25). The authors thank Dr. Qing Wang for her valuable insights on cascade failure mechanisms in outburst dynamics, which strengthened the theoretical framework of this study.

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