Warming temperature reduces the risk of pre-harvest freezing injury and modifies variety suitability in the main winegrape-growing regions of China

Abstract

Rising temperatures cause advanced phenology of grapevines and increased sugar concentration in berries, which ultimately modify variety suitability in a given region. Here, four bioclimatic indices and a refined grapevine sugar ripeness (GSR) model were employed to assess the suitability of six winegrape varieties across six winegrape-growing regions of China under historical climate conditions (1961-2020). First, four indices were compared between two periods, one before (P1) and one after (P2) an abrupt climate change events identified during 1988-2002 in these regions. Results showed three temperature-related indices increased in six regions, while the first fall frost day was delayed by 0-16 days in five out of the six regions during P2 compared with P1. Second, GSR model was applied to simulate target sugar concentrations as a proxy for grape harvest dates (GHDs). Direct utilization of original GSR model yielded unsatisfactory predictions with clear bias. Consequently, GSR model was recalibrated with local data to obtain an acceptable performance with R² and NRMSE values of 0.83 and 2.8% as well as 0.83 and 3.1% for the calibration and validation datasets, respectively, and further simulated GHDs of six varieties with advanced values of 6-30 days in six regions for P2 in comparison with P1. To provide a holistic view of freezing injury risk before harvest, comprehensive freezing injury index (CFI) was developed by integrating the frequency, duration and severity of the freezing risk. CFI decreased (2-60%) during P2 in all regions and the magnitude of decrease was elevation dependent. These findings provide valuable insights into the selection of varieties that can more reliably achieve fully mature fruit, producing more balanced wines with greater typicity under warming climate.

Acknowledgments

This research was partially funded by the Agricultural Breeding Project of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NXNYYZ202101), the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFE0109500), National Natural Science Foundation of China (U20A2041 and 42405198), CAS Youth Interdisciplinary Team (JCTD-2022-06), CAS Project for Young Scientists in Basic Research (YSBR-093), Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund (No. 20453) and Yunnan Provincial Key Research and Development Program (202403AP140029). It is also conducted as part of the LIA INNOGRAPE II International Associated Laboratory.

Author contributions

Huiqing Bai (Writing—review & editing, Methodology, Writing—original draft, Formal Analysis, Data curation), Jianqiang He (Writing—review & editing, Methodology), Cornelis van Leeuwen (Writing—review & editing), Rafiq Hamdi (Writing—review & editing), Erna Blancquaert (Writing—review & editing), Gregory V. Jones (Writing—review & editing) and Zhanwu Dai (Writing—review & editing, Methodology, Supervision, Conceptualization, Funding acquisition).

Data availability

The data underlying this article are available in the article and in its online supplementary material.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Supplementary data

Supplementary data is available at Horticulture Research online.

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