Lithospheric thickness controls asymmetric mantle plume spreading and metallogenesis in the Tarim Large Igneous Province-Central Asian Orogenic Belt System

Abstract

The dynamic interactions between mantle plumes and continental collision zones are still inadequately defined or poorly understood. Focusing on the Early Permian Tarim LIP and the adjacent Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB), this study employs a Random Forest-based tectonic affinity prediction model (98% accuracy) to quantitatively evaluate the relative contributions of distinct mantle components (subduction-modified, asthenospheric, and plume-related) in 461 basalt samples. Combined with lithospheric thickness reconstruction via Y/Yb ratios, we demonstrate that: (1) the influence of the Tarim mantle plume extended northward into the CAOB, but was deflected into an east-west trajectory upon encountering the thick lithosphere (>70 km) of the Yili Block; (2) within the orogen, ocean island basalt (OIB)-affinity anomalies (e.g., East Tianshan, Junggar) are spatially consistent with thin lithosphere zones (55-65 km), and clusters of Ni-Cu sulfide deposits; and (3) major trans-lithospheric faults served as preferential conduits for plume upwelling. These findings provide a ‘‘channel-barrier” model where lithospheric thickness variations control plume spreading asymmetry, with preexisting structural weaknesses regulating spatial distribution. This study establishes a methodological framework for plume identification and Ni-Cu sulfide exploration in analogous settings, with broad implications for deep Earth material cycles and lithosphere-mineralization interactions.

Keywords

Mantle plume / Lithospheric thickness / Plume-lithosphere interaction / OIB affinity / Ni-Cu mineralization

Data Availability

The dataset used in this paper are available at An et al. (2025), or downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17350357.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Xiuhui An: Writing - original draft, Validation, Resources, Investigation, Formal analysis. Zhaochong Zhang: Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Funding acquisition, Conceptualization. Hengxu Li: Writing - review & editing. Mingde Lang: Software. Ruixuan Zhang: Software. Zhiguo Cheng: Writing - review & editing.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 92479210, 42030302) and Deep Earth Probe and Mineral Resources Exploration–National Science and Technology Major Project (2024ZD1003402).

Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2026.102249.

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