Causal mechanisms and governance priorities of the SDG-based resource-economy-environment nexus in the human-nature system

Abstract

The eight Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to resources (2, 6, 7), economy (8, 9), and environment (12, 13, 15), collectively known as REE, form the core of the human-nature system. Understanding their complex interactions is crucial for identifying transformative and effective governance actions. However, the causal mechanisms underlying the REE-related SDGs remain elusive. We used expert elicitation to assess weighted, directed interactions among 69 targets of these SDGs and applied network analysis and machine learning to identify their higher-order impacts, capacity to maintain network robustness, community structures, similarities, and systemic and structural roles. Additionally, we used causal emergence analysis and link prediction to examine potential characteristics of the causal network at macro and micro scales, respectively. The results indicate that prioritizing target 9.4 (sustainable & clean industries) can accelerate overall SDG progress while enhancing synergies and maintaining systemic resilience. In the macro-network, where causal emergence occurs, macronode E dominated by ecological targets plays the strongest facilitating role. In the micro-network, four predicted links with the highest weights indicate that strengthening scientific research and technological innovation is expected to be a potential focal point for positive impact. However, its possible negative effects warrant careful consideration. Additionally, significant trade-offs may arise between energy development and species conservation in the REE nexus that should be avoided. This study offers new insights into the causal mechanisms and priorities of the SDGs in REE, promoting global human-nature system coupling and accelerating the achievement of the 2030 Agenda.

Keywords

Sustainable development goals / Resource-economy-environment nexus / Interaction mechanisms / Network analysis / Human-nature system / Global governance

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Yizhong Huan: Writing - review & editing, Writing - original draft, Visualization, Methodology, Funding acquisition, Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization. Pengpeng Mo: Writing - review & editing, Writing - original draft, Visualization, Formal analysis, Data curation. Yiming Su: Writing - review & editing, Data curation. Xiaoyun Li: Writing - review & editing, Data cura-tion. Yazhu Wang: Writing - review & editing, Data curation. Yali Tong: Writing - review & editing, Data curation. Tao Liang: Writ-ing - review & editing, Funding acquisition, Data curation. Lingq-ing Wang: Writing - review & editing, Data curation. Jian Hu: Writing - review & editing, Data curation. Guangjin Zhou: Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Data curation.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-cial interests or personal relationsh ips that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgment

This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China (Nos. 42361144882, 42471322, and 72204140) and the Major Research Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education in China (No. 23JZD042).

Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2025.102152.

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