Exploring interactions and progress of sustainable development goals in China across multiple scenarios with a system dynamics model

Abstract

While the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) embody humanity’s ambitious commitment to building a resilient and sustainable future for our planet, little is known about how the interactions among SDGs affect their progress and synergistic relations. In this study, we developed a system dynamics model to explore the progress of China’s SDGs and their interactions under different development scenarios by 2030. Results showed that the overall progress of SDGs could increase by 7.0 % under the scenario of sustainable transition compared to the baseline scenario. Network analysis revealed a strong synergy among SDG 2, SDG 6 and SDG 7, suggesting a potential enhancement of water-energy-food nexus through collaboration among departments. The differences in the progress of SDGs under different scenarios and the synergies and trade-offs among SDGs can largely be explained by the complex interactions among SDG indicators. The superior performance of sustainable transition scenario stemmed from the increases in educational investment and water-use efficiency, which could promote the decoupling of economic development from environmental pressure. The synergy among water, energy and food systems was attributed to the alleviation of water stress, which could promote agricultural productivity and support energy uses by expanding power capacity. In addition, educational attainment contributing to the achievement of multiple SDGs (e.g., SDG 7, SDG 9, SDG 12) through promoting technological progress and decreasing energy intensity served an important bridging role in the interactions among SDGs. This study highlights the importance of incorporating interactions into systematic management through cross-sectoral coordination strategies.

Keywords

Complex interactions / Feedbacks / Network analysis / Synergistic relations / Water–energy–food nexus

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