Wind energy expansion in China produces substantial CO₂ reductions and climate benefits

Abstract

Wind power is central to decarbonizing China's power sector, yet its CO₂ reduction benefits are often evaluated using static assumptions that overlook the dynamic evolution of the energy system. To address this limitation, we established a dynamic assessment framework taking two distinct approaches: the Dynamic High-Carbon Displacement Emission Factor (DHC-DEF), which assumes the priority displacement of high-carbon baseloads, and the Dynamic All Mix Energy Displacement Emission Factor (DAM-DEF), which reflects the system-wide average emission intensity of the evolving power mix. Leveraging this framework, we quantified wind power's mitigation benefits and conducted a monetized assessment of its climate-economic value in different Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) scenarios. The results show that, owing to wind power's leapfrog development over the past two decades, China has achieved a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction of 3,672.41 Mt in the DAM-DEF case, generating around \$273.26 billion in climate benefits. By 2060, an annual wind generation of 6,660 TWh is expected to abate at least 931.25 Mt of CO₂, achieving a climate-economic value of around \$33.52 billion. Cumulative reductions over the entire period are forecasted to reach 50,101.21 Mt, delivering economic returns of around $1,803.64 billion. Spatially, the mitigation contributions have been largely concentrated in North (45.7 %) and Northwest (15.8 %) China. Notably, our analysis results show that the strategic prioritization of displacing highcarbon or coal-fired technologies holds the potential to boost mitigation benefits by over 50 %. Moreover, given the high sensitivity of economic valuation to SCC, policymakers should incorporate SCC into dynamic shadow pricing mechanisms and energy planning to support high-quality wind power development.

Keywords

Wind energy / CO₂ reduction / Displacement emission factor / Social cost of carbon / China

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