Assessing the dynamics of greenhouse gas emissions and spatial inequalities to inform sustainable agricultural production

Abstract

Achieving sustainable agricultural production is a critical global challenge, yet the spatial inequalities in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their drivers remain poorly understood. Here, we developed a comprehensive provincial-level assessment of China’s agricultural GHG emissions and inequality from 2000 to 2019, integrating carbon dioxide (CO₂) and non-CO₂ gases using region-specific activity data and emission factors. We quantify spatial heterogeneity in emissions by examining per capita, per agricultural value added, and per unit land area emissions, and apply population-, economy-, and land-based Gini coefficients to systematically evaluate emission inequalities. Our results show that China’s agricultural emissions remained relatively stable over the study period, fluctuating around approximately 0.94–1.06 gigatons CO₂-equivalent, with non-CO₂ gases accounting for 86 %–93 % of total emissions. Substantial spatial disparities persist across provinces. Per capita emissions are highest in sparsely populated western and northeastern regions, while per unit area emissions are concentrated in eastern provinces. Emission intensity per unit of agricultural value added declined markedly nationwide, indicating significant efficiency gains. Inequality analysis reveals a continuous increase in the population-based Gini coefficient (from 0.20 to 0.35), a comparatively stable economy-based Gini coefficient (from 0.23 to 0.28), and a declining land-based Gini coefficient (from 0.51 to 0.42), highlighting divergent equity dynamics depending on the metric used. These findings reveal that while emission intensity has improved, substantial regional heterogeneity persists. This study provides a nuanced understanding of agricultural emission inequalities and offers valuable insights for policymakers to design tailored mitigation strategies.

Keywords

Sustainable development / Greenhouse gas emissions / Food-system / Gini coefficient / Climate inequalities

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