Poleward expansion of human activities exacerbates Arctic ecological crisis

Bo Su; Haipeng Feng; Deliang Chen; Guoyan Yang; Xinrong Yan; Xiaona Wang; Hans W. Chen; Ziqian Zhong; Lan Wang-Erlandsson; Juan C. Rocha; Tinghai Ou; Amy Lauren Lovecraft; Xin Li; Bin He; Song Xu; Hongyu Zhao; Chao Yang; Jianbang Wang; Tingfeng Dou; Minghu Ding; Bin Chen; Cunde Xiao

doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100481

Geography and Sustainability ›› 2026, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (4) :100481 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100481

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research-article

Poleward expansion of human activities exacerbates Arctic ecological crisis

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^a State Key Laboratory of Earth Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, China

^b School of Environment, Beijing Normal University , Beijing 100875, China

^c Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University , Stockholm 10691, Sweden

^d Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg , Gothenburg 40530, Sweden

^e Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University , Beijing 100084, China

^f China Waterborne Transport Research Institute , Beijing 100088, China

^g Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology , Gothenburg 41296, Sweden

^h Anthropocene Laboratory, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences , Stockholm 10405, Sweden

ⁱ Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University , Stockholm, Sweden

^j Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Member of the Leibnitz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany

^k Center for Arctic Policy Studies, University of Alaska Fairbanks , Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA

^l National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, China

^m Division of Geographic Information Science, School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum University , Chendu 610500, China

ⁿ School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University , Shenzhen 518060, China

^o College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, China

^p State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences , Beijing 100081, China

^* E-mail address:cdxiao@bnu.edu.cn (C. Xiao).

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Abstract

The Arctic has experienced rapid and profound changes due to its heightened sensitivity to global warming and growing regional human pressures. While past research has advanced our understanding of these transformations, a comprehensive assessment within a unified analytical framework is still needed to quantify the ecological impacts of human activity across this fragile region. In this study, we systematically assessed the expansion of human activity and its ecological effects across Arctic and sub-Arctic regions from 2000 to 2020. We combined satellite-based land-cover datasets, vegetation resilience indicator (i.e., lag-1 month temporal autocorrelation of remotely sensed greenness), and species distribution data to track and analyze these changes and impacts. Our findings show that areas affected by human activity -mainly cultivated lands and artificial surfaces -expanded by nearly 13,000 km², equivalent to a rate of 1.8 % per decade. This growth was largely driven by the increase in artificial surfaces (~77.2 %) and extended to higher latitude. As a result, natural habitats became increasingly fragmented, vegetation resilience declined, and risks of ecological tipping points rose. These impacts threatened the habitats of approximately 97.5 % of Arctic species, including 111 species listed as vulnerable or endangered. Our results highlight that, beyond the effects of climate change, the continued expansion of human activity is intensifying ecological risks in the Arctic. This underscores an urgent need for enhanced ecological protection and transformative social strategies to safeguard the region’s future.

Keywords

Arctic change / Human activity expansion / Habitat fragmentation / Vegetation resilience / Biodiversity loss

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Bo Su, Haipeng Feng, Deliang Chen, Guoyan Yang, Xinrong Yan, Xiaona Wang, Hans W. Chen, Ziqian Zhong, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Juan C. Rocha, Tinghai Ou, Amy Lauren Lovecraft, Xin Li, Bin He, Song Xu, Hongyu Zhao, Chao Yang, Jianbang Wang, Tingfeng Dou, Minghu Ding, Bin Chen, Cunde Xiao. Poleward expansion of human activities exacerbates Arctic ecological crisis. Geography and Sustainability, 2026, 7 (4) : 100481 DOI:10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100481

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