Simulation of the vulnerability of the ecology–economy–society composite system in desertified regions: A case study of Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract

Desertification is a critical global challenge, driving complex evolutionary shifts and vulnerabilities within the ecology–economy–society composite system (EES system) in desertified regions. Quantifying these vulnerabilities is essential for the United Nation’s 2030 Agenda for sustainable development but remains technically challenging. Consequently, this study designs an integrated model coupling climate, vegetation and soil, land use, society and economy, and water resources to simulate the regional vulnerability of the EES system. Applied to Inner Mongolia, China, the model demonstrated high reliability, with land use area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.8, the coefficient of determination (R²) over 0.9 between simulated and MODIS net primary productivity, and socioeconomic and water resource errors generally within 10 %. The spatial pattern of the vulnerability of the EES system in Inner Mongolia exhibits significant heterogeneity, with high vulnerable regions located in Ulanqab, Chifeng, and western Alxa. Regional vulnerability was lowest under the ecological protection scenario, and higher under the economic and balanced development scenarios. The vulnerability trend during 2021–2030 varies across different scenarios, and generally depicted a decreasing trend in most regions, with the most rapid rate of decline under the SSP5–RCP8.5 and economic development priority scenarios. The developed integrated model will help to understand the evolutionary trend and mechanism of the vulnerability of the EES system, and the simulated results could be used to assist local governments in improving desertification control and sustainable development strategies.

Keywords

Vulnerability / Ecology–economy–society composite system / Simulation / Desertified regions

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