Photovoltaic carbon reduction potential analysis and layout optimization coupling future development scenarios: A case study of Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract

The photovoltaic industry plays a crucial role in addressing the global challenge of climate change. In recent years, China’s photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly and maintained international leadership, requiring a deeper systematic understanding of its future carbon reduction potential and spatial layout optimization strategies. This study constructed a decision-making framework for photovoltaic carbon reduction potential analysis and spatial layout optimization, coupling future development scenarios, and conducted a case study in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. The research integrated the pvlib python function package with life cycle assessment methods to optimize the estimation of annual power generation and carbon reduction benefits of solar farms. Combined with regional policies and development plans, multiple photovoltaic development scenarios for 2030 and 2060 were constructed to characterize the distribution patterns of solar farms in the study area under different development scenarios. On this basis, the carbon reduction potential was quantified, and layout optimization strategies were explored. The results showed that photovoltaic development in the study area was rapid from 2013 to 2023, bringing nearly 25-fold growth in annual power generation and carbon reduction benefits. Photovoltaic facilities deployed in high-suitability areas will bring significant carbon reduction potential, while improving the installed capacity of the entire study area is more effective for enhancing carbon reduction potential compared to changing the proportion of installed capacity in different regions. The annual carbon reduction potential in the study area could reach up to seven times the current level by 2060, with the desert regions contributing 78 % of this increase. The study area still has considerable photovoltaic development potential, and it is recommended to prioritize the development of high-suitability areas in the western sand desert, gravel desert, and other desert regions while accelerating the configuration of the entire photovoltaic industry chain. The research results can provide decision support for regional photovoltaic industry development planning, and the research framework has important reference value for national and even global-scale energy transition planning.

Keywords

Photovoltaic power generation / Carbon mitigation / Spatial layout / Scenario decision-making / Inner Mongolia

References

[1] Bai, Z.Y., Jia, A.M., Bai, Z.J., Qu, S. M., Zhang, M., Kong, L.H., Sun, R.H., Wang, M.J., 2022. Photovoltaic panels have altered grassland plant biodiversity and soil microbial diversity. Front. Microbiol. 13, 1065899. doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2022.1065899.

[2] Bruhwyler, R., Sánchez, H., Meza, C., Lebeau, F., Brunet, P., Dabadie, G., Dittmann, S., Gottschalg, R., Negroni, J.J., 2023. Vertical agrivoltaics and its potential for electricity production and agricultural water demand: a case study in the area of Chanco, Chile. Sust. Energy Technol. Assess. 60, 103425. doi: 10.1016/j.seta.2023.103425.

[3] Chen, F.N., Shen, L., 2012. Regional differences and their cause analysis of China’s solar PV industry. J. Basic Sci. Eng. 20 (S1), 108-118. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-0930.2012.s1.011.

[4] Daniela-Abigail, H.-L., Vega-De-Lille, M.I., Sacramento-Rivero, J.C., Ponce-Caballero, C., El-Mekaoui, A., Navarro-Pineda, F., 2024. Life cycle assessment of photovoltaic panels including transportation and two end-of-life scenarios: shaping a sustainable future for renewable energy. Renew. Energy Focus 51, 100649. doi: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100649.

[5] Dong, L.L., Gu, Y., Cai, K.H., He, X., Song, Q.B., Yuan, W.Y., Duan, H.B., 2024. Unveiling lifecycle carbon emissions and its mitigation potentials of distributed photovoltaic power through two typical case systems. Sol. Energy 269, 112360. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2024.112360.

[6] Dong, Y.Q., Lyu, X., Li, X.B., Dang, D.L., 2026. Elucidating the spatial heterogeneity and its driver factors of land surface temperature responses to solar farm development in China. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 118, 108302. doi: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108302.

[7] Du, W.J., Jiang, Y., Guan, M.X., Liu, X.L., Kang, M.Y., 2023. Whole lifecycle assessment of carbon reduction benefits of polysilicon photovoltaics in Xinjiang. J. Nat. Resour. 38 (3), 694-706.

[8] Duan, W., Zhao, W.D., Xu, D.S., 2024. Study on the pathway of energy transition in Inner Mongolia under the “dual carbon” goal. Heliyon 10 (23), e39764. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39764.

[9] Farnaz, Nuthammachot, N., Shabbir, R., 2025. Evaluating site selection for optimal photovoltaic installations and CO₂ emission reduction in selected districts of khyber pakhtunkhwa . Sci. Rep. 15 (1), 6635. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-86713-5.

[10] Ferry, A., Parenti, M., Thebault, M., Ménézo, C., Fossa, M., 2025. Optimal tilt angles for bifacial photovoltaic plants across Europe based on cumulative sky and typical meteorological Year data. Sol. Energy 293, 113475. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2025.113475.

[11] Fthenakis, V.M., Kim, H.C., 2011. Photovoltaics: life-cycle analyses. Sol. Energy 85 (8), 1609-1628. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2009.10.002.

[12] Fu, Y.Y., Liu, X., Yuan, Z.W., 2015. Life-cycle assessment of multi-crystalline photovoltaic (PV) systems in China. J. Clean. Prod. 86, 180-190. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.07.057.

[13] Guarino, S., Buscemi, A., Chiaruzzi, C., Lo Brano, V., 2025. Modelling and analysis of V-shaped bifacial PV systems for agrivoltaic applications: a Python-based approach for energy optimization. Appl. Energy 389, 125785. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125785.

[14] Guo, X.P., Lin, K., Huang, H., Li, Y., 2019. Carbon footprint of the photovoltaic power supply chain in China. J. Clean. Prod. 233, 626-633. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.06.102.

[15] Hao, R., Sun, X., Zhao, Y.C., Shang, J.H., Zhu, X., Li, H.W., Liu, F.L., 2025. Integrating allocation methods and regional optimization in life cycle assessment of floating photovoltaics for cleaner energy transitions in China. J. Clean. Prod. 521, 146059. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.146059.

[16] He, G., Kammen, D.M., 2016. Where, when and how much solar is available? A provincial-scale solar resource assessment for China. Renew. Energy 85, 74-82. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2015.06.027.

[17] Heath, G.A., Silverman, T.J., Kempe, M., Deceglie, M., Ravikumar, D., Remo, T., Cui, H., Sinha, P., Libby, C., Shaw, S., Komoto, K., Wambach, K., Butler, E., Barnes, T., Wade, A., 2020. Research and development priorities for silicon photovoltaic module recycling to support a circular economy. Nat. Energy 5 (7), 502-510. doi: 10.1038/s41560-020-0645-2.

[18] Holmgren, W.F., Hansen, C.W., Mikofski, M.A., 2018. pvlib python: a python package for modeling solar energy systems. J. Open Source Softw. 3 (29), 884. doi: 10.21105/joss.00884.

[19] Hou, G.F., Sun, H.H., Jiang, Z.Y., Pan, Z.Q., Wang, Y.B., Zhang, X.D., Zhao, Y., Yao, Q., 2016. Life cycle assessment of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation from crystalline silicon solar modules in China. Appl. Energy 164, 882-890. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.11.023.

[20] Huang, Q.S., Geng, Y., Yu, Z.J., 2025. From energy consumption control to carbon emission control in fossil and renewable energy rich regions: a general equilibrium analysis of Inner Mongolia. Struct. Change Econ. Dyn. 75, 188-198. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.007.

[21] Jäger-Waldau, A., Kougias, I., Taylor, N., Thiel, C., 2020. How photovoltaics can contribute to GHG emission reductions of 55% in the EU by 2030. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 126, 109836. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.109836.

[22] Jensen, A.R., Anderson, K.S., Holmgren, W.F., Mikofski, M.A., Hansen, C.W., Boeman, L.J., Loonen, R., 2023. pvlib iotools -open-source Python functions for seamless access to solar irradiance data. Sol. Energy 266, 112092. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2023.112092.

[23] Jia, X.J., Lv, F., Li, P., Wang, W.J., 2020. Life-cycle assessment of p-type multi-Si back surface field (BSF) solar module in China of 2019. Sol. Energy 196, 207-216. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2019.12.018.

[24] Jiang, H., Yao, L., Qin, J., Zhu, R., Zhou, C.H., 2024. Unlocking multifaceted benefits of photovoltaic recycling via global collaborative efforts . Innov. Energy 1 (3), 100043. doi: 10.59717/j.xinn-energy.2024.100043.

[25] Lamnatou, C., Guignard, N., Chemisana, D., Cristofari, C., Debusschere, V., 2023. Photovoltaic power plants with hydraulic storage: life-cycle assessment focusing on energy payback time and greenhouse-gas emissions -a case study in Spain. Sustain. Energy Technol. Assess. 60, 103468. doi: 10.1016/j.seta.2023.103468.

[26] Li, M.Q., Virguez, E., Rui, S., Tian, J.L., Gao, S., Patiño-Echeverri, D., 2022. High-resolution data shows China’s wind and solar energy resources are enough to support a 2050 decarbonized electricity system. Appl. Energy 306, 117996. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117996.

[27] Liao, M.L., Zhang, Z., Jia, J., Xiong, J., Han, M.Y., 2022. Mapping China’s photovoltaic power geographies: spatial-temporal evolution, provincial competition and low-carbon transition. Renew. Energy 191, 251-260. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.068.

[28] Lin, O.Z., Štěpanec, L., Koutroulis, E., Juchelkova, D., Aye, H.Y., 2026. Optimizing monthly solar PV tilt angles and energy yield across global climate zones: a hybrid machine learning and PVLib approach. Renew. Energy 260, 125163. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.125163.

[29] Liu, F., Lv, T., 2019. Assessment of geographical distribution of photovoltaic generation in China for a low carbon electricity transition. J. Clean. Prod. 212, 655-665. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.045.

[30] Liu, L.B., Wang, Y., Wang, Z., Li, S.C., Li, J.T., He, G., Li, Y., Liu, Y.X., Piao, S.L., Gao, Z.Q., Chang, R., Tang, W.J., Jiang, K.J., Wang, S.J., Wang, J., Zhao, L., Chao, Q.C., 2022. Potential contributions of wind and solar power to China’s carbon neutrality. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 180, 106155. doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106155.

[31] Longo, S., Rincione, R., Cellura, M., Rossi, F., Sinicropi, A., Parisi, M.L., 2025. Life cycle assessment of concentrating solar power systems and concentrating photovoltaic systems: a review. Energy Rep. 14, 4526-4539. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.11.067.

[32] Lyu, X., Li, X.B., Zhang, C.H., Dang, D.L., Wang, K., Lou, A.R., 2024a. Mapping the carbon mitigation potential of photovoltaic development in the Gobi and desert regions of China. Energy 308, 132936. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.132936.

[33] Lyu, X., Li, X.B., Wei, H.S., Wu, J.X., Dang, D.L., Zhang, C.H., Wang, K., Lou, A.R., 2024b. Mapping of utility-scale solar panel areas from 2000 to 2022 in China using Google Earth Engine. IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens. 17, 18083-18095. doi: 10.1109/JSTARS.2024.3468627.

[34] Mao, D., Yang, S.Q., Ma, L., Ma, W.H., Yu, Z.Q., Xi, F.S., Yu, J., 2024. Overview of life cycle assessment of recycling end-of-life photovoltaic panels: a case study of crystalline silicon photovoltaic panels. J. Clean. Prod. 434, 140320. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140320.

[35] National Development of Reform Commission (NDRC) of the People’s Republic of China, 2021. The Development of Renewable Energy For the 14th Five-Year Plan. NDRC, Beijing (in Chinese).

[36] Niu, J.Y., Wu, J.Y., Qin, W.M., Wang, L.C., Yang, C., Zhang, M., Zhang, Y.J., Qi, Q.H., 2023. Projection of future carbon benefits by photovoltaic power potential in China using CMIP6 statistical downscaling data. Environ. Res. Lett. 18 (9), 094013. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/acec03.

[37] Nwokolo, S.C., Alsenani, T.R., Okonkwo, P.C., Meyer, E.L., Ahia, C.C., 2026. Hybridized forecasting and climate change impact analysis of six solar PV technologies under CMIP6-SSP scenarios. Energy Rep. 15, 108972. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2025.108972.

[38] Oakleaf, J.R., Kennedy, C.M., Baruch-Mordo, S., Gerber, J.S., West, P.C., Johnson, J.A., Kiesecker, J., 2019. Mapping global development potential for renewable energy, fossil fuels, mining and agriculture sectors. Sci. Data 6 (1), 101. doi: 10.1038/s41597-019-0084-8.

[39] Pan, Z.R., Liu, C.C., Chen, Z., Wang, H.Y., Wang, X.Q., Guo, J.H., Li, W., 2025. Quantifying spatiotemporal shifts in photovoltaic potential across China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios. Appl. Energy 392, 125957. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125957.

[40] Pandey, G., Lyden, S., Franklin, E., Harrison, M.T., 2025. Agrivoltaics as an SDG enabler: trade-offs and co-benefits for food security, energy generation and emissions mitigation. Resour. Environ. Sustain. 19, 100186. doi: 10.1016/j.resenv.2024.100186.

[41] Pascaris, A.S., Schelly, C., Burnham, L., Pearce, J.M., 2021. Integrating solar energy with agriculture: industry perspectives on the market, community, and socio-political dimensions of agrivoltaics. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 75, 102023. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2021.102023.

[42] Petersen, A.J., Thiis, T.K., 2026. Continental-scale assessment of typical meteorological years in a changing climate: metrics and insights from 5000 European locations. Energy Build. 352, 116814. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116814.

[43] Polo, J., Martín-Chivelet, N., Sanz-Saiz, C., Alonso-Montesinos, J., López, G., Alonso-Abella, M., Battles, F.J., Marzo, A., Hanrieder, N., 2021. Modeling soiling losses for rooftop PV systems in suburban areas with nearby forest in Madrid. Renew. Energy 178, 420-428. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.085.

[44] Shital, S., Bokde, N.D., Lazic, J., Fanara, C., 2025. Comparative analysis of PV orientation strategies to tackle summer demand peaks and land limitations. Energy Sustain. Dev. 89, 101864. doi: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101864.

[45] Shu, Y., Li, G.Q., Li, G.M., Dong, X.D., Yang, B., Xing, W.Z., Teng, J.X., 2025. Soil carbon loss from building photovoltaic power stations is under 2 % of their carbon reduction. J. Environ. Manage. 395, 127812. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.127812.

[46] Shukla, A., Yadav, S.K., Yadav, D., Singh, J., Singh, R.B., Mozammil Hasnain, S.M., Zairov, R., 2025. Measured and simulated energy, economics and environmental (3E) performance of a building applied solar PV (BAPV) system using advanced open-source simulation software. Unconv. Resour. 7, 100199. doi: 10.1016/j.uncres.2025.100199.

[47] Si, L.J., Wang, P.Y., Cao, D.Q., 2024. Towards sustainable development goals: assessment of wind and solar potential in northwest China. Environ. Res. 252, 118660. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118660.

[48] Sohani, A., Pierro, M., Moser, D., Cornaro, C., 2025. Comparison of physical models for bifacial PV power estimation. Energy Convers. Manage. 327, 119515. doi: 10.1016/j.enconman.2025.119515.

[49] Tao, Y., Wen, Z.G., Xu, L.N., Zhang, X., Tan, Q.L., Li, H.F., Evans, S., 2019. Technology options: can Chinese power industry reach the CO₂ emission peak before 2030? Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 147, 85-94. doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.04.020.

[50] Wang, P., Zhang, S.N., Pu, Y.R., Cao, S.C., Zhang, Y.H., 2021. Estimation of photovoltaic power generation potential in 2020 and 2030 using land resource changes: an empirical study from China. Energy 219, 119611. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119611.

[51] Wang, Q., Guo, J.L., Li, R.R., 2023b. Better renewable with economic growth without carbon growth: a comparative study of impact of turbine, photovoltaics, and hydropower on economy and carbon emission. J. Clean. Prod. 426, 139046. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139046.

[52] Wang, T.T., Wang, Y.H., Wang, K., Fu, S., Ding, L., 2024. Five-dimensional assessment of China’s centralized and distributed photovoltaic potential: from solar irradiation to CO₂ mitigation . Appl. Energy 356, 122326. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122326.

[53] Wang, X.G., Lu, Z.M., Li, T.X., Zhang, P., 2023a. Carbon-neutral power system transition pathways for coal-dominant and renewable resource-abundant regions: Inner Mongolia as a case study. Energy Conver. Manage. 285, 117013. doi: 10.1016/j.enconman.2023.117013.

[54] Wong, J.H., Royapoor, M., Chan, C.W., 2016. Review of life cycle analyses and embodied energy requirements of single-crystalline and multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 58, 608-618. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.241.

[55] Wu, C.D., Liu, H., Yu, Y., Zhao, W.Z., Liu, J.T., Yu, H.L., Yetemen, O., 2022. Ecohydrological effects of photovoltaic solar farms on soil microclimates and moisture regimes in arid Northwest China: a modeling study. Sci. Total Environ. 802, 149946. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149946.

[56] Xu, M., Xie, P., Xie, B.C., 2020. Study of China’s optimal solar photovoltaic power development path to 2050. Resour. Policy 65, 101541. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101541.

[57] Yang, Q., Huang, T.Y., Wang, S.G., Li, J.S., Dai, S.Q., Wright, S., Wang, Y.X., Peng, H.W., 2019. A GIS-based high spatial resolution assessment of large-scale PV generation potential in China. Appl. Energy 247, 254-269. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.005.

[58] Yang, S.F., Huang, C., Peng, C., Zhang, P., Fan, Y.L., Ye, C.X., 2026. Land suitability and environmental benefit assessment for wind-solar integrated development: a case study of Inner Mongolia, China. J. Environ. Manage. 397, 128376. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128376.

[59] Zeng, Z.Y., Kim, J.-H., Muehleisen, R.T., 2025. An update to the Sandia method for creating typical meteorological years from a limited pool of calendar years. Energy 320, 135143. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135143.

[60] Zhang, N., Jiang, Y.T., Zhao, X.J., Deng, J.W., Mi, Q.Y., Li, J., 2023. How much carbon dioxide has the Chinese PV manufacturing industry emitted? J. Clean. Prod. 425, 138904. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.138904.

[61] Zhao, R.N., Dong, L., Bai, L., Zhang, Y., Li, X.Y., Qiao, Q., Xie, M.H., Wang, W., 2020. Inventory analysis on carbon emissions of photovoltaic industry. China Environ. Sci. 40 (6), 2751-2757. doi: 10.19674/j.cnki.issn1000-6923.2020.0308.

[62] Zhao, Y.Z., Li, S.Y., Yang, D.Z., Yahaya, I.I., Pan, H.X., 2024. Assessment of site suitability for centralized photovoltaic power stations in Northwest China’s six provinces. J. Environ. Manage. 366, 121820. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121820.

[63] Zhu, Y.Q., Chuai, X.W., Ji, X.P., 2026. Photovoltaic land occupation pattern analysis and comprehensive assessment of carbon emission reduction. Renew. Energy 256, 124481. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.124481.