Global capacity of dietary sustainability to deal with climate change

Abstract

The blueprint for feeding the world’s population within the planetary boundaries is to build “capacity of dietary sustainability”-everyone can access and afford a healthy and environmentally friendly diet with relatively greater stability under global shocks such as climate change. But the global capacity of dietary sustainability to deal with climate change remains unknown. Here we developed a novel framework to evaluate dietary sustainability and assess capacity of dietary sustainability to deal with climate change in nutritional security (Capacity^nut), social equity (Capacity^soc), and environmental protection (Capacity^env) dimensions, based on publicly available dietary sustainability data and climate change data from websites. Descriptive statistics results showed that the average score for the three capacities in rural areas was 7.32 % higher than in urban areas, and that the Gini coefficient for the three capacities in urban areas was 28 % higher than in rural areas. Urban areas showed stronger synergy between Capacity^nut and Capacity^soc than rural areas, with a Pearson coefficient of 0.622 in urban areas and 0.436 in rural areas. Education was the most important factor for Capacity^soc, with a standardized coefficient of 0.401; distance food trade was the most important factor for Capacity^env, with a standardized coefficient of 0.500. By 2100, the average score for the three capacities was expected to increase by 39.36 % to 63.64 %. Our results demonstrate the essence of targeted efforts in urban areas and stable international food trade for enhancing capacity of dietary sustainability to deal with climate change globally.

Keywords

Dietary sustainability / Climate change / Evaluation framework / Spatial patterns / Synergy and trade-offs / Scenario analysis

Acknowledgments

We thank Jianguo Liu for his constructive comments that have greatly helped improve the paper. This research was financially supported by the Excellent Young Scientists Fund from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42422105), United Nations Environment Program Tongji University fund: Enhancing Knowledge and Capacity for Inclusive Green Economies (2021) (Grant No. S1 32PGL 000007), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42101249). We are grateful to the editing service (Editage Language Editing Services) for improving the language of our manuscript.

Data availability

All data are available in the main text or the supplementary material.

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Rui Zhao: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Visualization, Validation, Software, Methodology, Investigation, Conceptualization. Xia Li: Supervision, Resources, Project administration, Investigation. Zhenci Xu: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Software, Resources, Project administration, Methodology, Funding acquisition, Conceptualization. Fengting Li: Writing – review & editing, Supervision, Software, Project administration, Methodology, Funding acquisition. Ying Wang: Supervision, Project administration, Methodology. Haijun Wang: Writing – review & editing, Validation, Supervision, Methodology. Peng Zhu: Writing – review & editing, Validation, Supervision, Methodology. Zhimeng Jiang: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Methodology. Qiang Ren: Writing – review & editing, Methodology. Zhongbin B. Li: Writing – review & editing, Methodology. Meiyu Xiong: Writing – original draft, Visualization, Validation, Methodology. Nan Jia: Visualization, Validation, Methodology. Yihui Ding: Writing – review & editing, Validation.

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