Drivers of shifts in ecosystem carbon sink and water yield trends before and after the establishment of national key ecological function zones in China

Mengyu Zhang; Honglin He; Li Zhang; Zhong’en Niu; Xiaoli Ren; Keyu Qin; Tiecheng Li; Shilong Ge; Ziheng Feng; Tianxiang Wang; Liang Shi; Yan lv; Guangyong You; Guirui Yu

doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100427

Geography and Sustainability ›› 2026, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (2) :100427 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100427

Research Article

research-article

Drivers of shifts in ecosystem carbon sink and water yield trends before and after the establishment of national key ecological function zones in China

Mengyu Zhang ^a^,^b^,^c
, Honglin He ^a^,^b^,^d^,^*
, Li Zhang ^a^,^b^,^d
, Zhong’en Niu ^e
, Xiaoli Ren ^a^,^b^,^d
, Keyu Qin ^a^,^b
, Tiecheng Li ^a^,^b
, Shilong Ge ^a^,^b
, Ziheng Feng ^a^,^b^,^c
, Tianxiang Wang ^a^,^b^,^f
, Liang Shi ^a^,^b
, Yan lv ^g
, Guangyong You ^h
, Guirui Yu ^a^,^d

Author information +

^aKey Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

^bNational Ecosystem Science Data Center, Beijing 100101, China

^cUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

^dCollege of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

^eSchool of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, China

^fState Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-Ecosystems, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

^gSchool of Civil Engineering and Spatial Geomatics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, China

^hNanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210042, China

^* E-mail address: hehl@igsnrr.ac.cn (H. He).

Show less

History +

PDF

Abstract

Enhancing net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and water yield (WY) services is critical for sustainable ecosystem management and water security. In 2010, China established National Key Ecological Function Zones (NKEFZs) to restore ecosystems. However, their impacts on carbon-water services dynamics remains poorly quantified. Using a calibrated process-based model (CEVSA-ES), we assessed the effects of vegetation restoration (greening and vegetation type changes) and global climate changes (climate change, elevated CO₂, and nitrogen deposition) on the shifts in NEP and WY trends relative to NKEFZ implementation. Over 2001-2021, both NEP and WY exhibited increasing trends (5.1 Tg C yr^-2 and 0.3 mm yr^-1, respectively), and were the most evident in the water and soil conservation zones, biodiversity maintenance zones, and water conservation zones, respectively. Notably, following the NKEFZs establishment, NEP growth accelerated remarkably from 1.9 Tg C yr^-2 (2001-2010) to 5.6 Tg C yr^-2 (2011-2021), particularly within water conservation zones, whereas WY trends reversed from a decline (-0.5 mm yr^-1) to an increase (0.9 mm yr^-1). While greening drove NEP growth and precipitation governed WY changes during 2001-2021, the post-2010 NEP acceleration was jointly controlled by vegetation restoration and global climate change. Conversely, the WY trend reversal was primarily attributed to shifts in precipitation trends. These findings provide critical insights into how ecological policies can synergistically enhance carbon and water services under a changing climate, offering important implications for sustainable ecological restoration and natural climate solutions.

Keywords

Ecosystem carbon sink / Water yield / Process-based ecosystem service model / Vegetation restoration / Global climate change / National key ecological function zones

Cite this article

Download citation ▾

Mengyu Zhang, Honglin He, Li Zhang, Zhong’en Niu, Xiaoli Ren, Keyu Qin, Tiecheng Li, Shilong Ge, Ziheng Feng, Tianxiang Wang, Liang Shi, Yan lv, Guangyong You, Guirui Yu. Drivers of shifts in ecosystem carbon sink and water yield trends before and after the establishment of national key ecological function zones in China. Geography and Sustainability, 2026, 7(2): 100427 DOI:10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100427

登录浏览全文

4963

注册一个新账户忘记密码

Data availability statement

The MODIS land cover datasets are available at https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/. The remotely sensed LAI datasets are available at https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/. The climate datasets are available at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means?tab=overview. The nitrogen deposition datasets are available at http://www.dx.doi.org/10.11922/sciencedb.607. Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are obtained from https://www.co2.earth/.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Mengyu Zhang: Writing - original draft, Visualization, Methodology, Formal analysis, Data curation. Honglin He: Writing - review & editing. Li Zhang: Formal analysis. Zhong’en Niu: Validation. Xiaoli Ren: Investigation. Keyu Qin: Resources. Tiecheng Li: Resources. Shilong Ge: Data curation. Ziheng Feng: Data curation. Tianxiang Wang: Data curation. Liang Shi: Investigation. Yan lv: Data curation. Guangyong You: Investigation. Guirui Yu: Resources.

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the and National and Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 42501597, 42141005 and 42030509) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grants No. 2025M770371 and 2025T180098).

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100427.

References

Publishing order | Descend order by publishing year | Descend order by cited within

[1]

Bacani V.M., Machado da Silva B.H.,Ayumi de Souza Amede Sato, A., Souza Sampaio, B.D., Rodrigues da Cunha, E., Pereira Vick, E., Ribeiro de Oliveira, V.F., Decco, H.F., 2024. Carbon storage and sequestration in a eucalyptus productive zone in the Brazilian Cerrado, using the Ca-Markov/Random Forest and InVEST models. J. Clean. Prod. 444, 141291. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141291.

[2]	Bastos Lima M.G., Kissinger G., Visseren-Hamakers I.J., Braña-Varela J., Gupta A., 2017. The Sustainable Development Goals and REDD + : assessing institutional interactions and the pursuit of synergies. Int. Environ. Agreem.-Polit. Law Econom. 17 (4), 589-606. doi: 10.1007/s10784-017-9366-9.

[3]	Chang J.H., Huang C., 2024. Three decades of spatiotemporal dynamics in forest biomass density in the Qinba Mountains. Ecol. Inform. 81, 102566. doi: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102566.

[4]	Chang Y.R., Liu X., Cao B., Wang Y.X., Shen Y.J., 2024. Effects of vegetation restoration on runoff and its components in the mountainous Haihe River Basin. J. Hydrol.-Reg. Stud. 53, 101803. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101803.

[5]	Chausson A., Turner B., Seddon D., Chabaneix N., Girardin C.A.J., Kapos V., Key I., Roe D., Smith A., Woroniecki S., Seddon N., 2020. Mapping the effectiveness of nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation. Glob. Change Biol. 26 (11), 6134-6155. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15310.

[6]	Chen C., Riley W.J., Prentice I.C., Keenan T.F., 2022. CO 2 fertilization of terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from site to global scales. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 119 (10), e2115627119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2115627119.

[7]	Chen F.F., Chen W., Qiu H.G., 2025. Poverty alleviation resettlement in China reduces deforestation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 122 (11), e2421526122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2421526122.

[8]	Chen J.M., Ju W.M., Ciais P., Viovy N., Liu R.G., Liu Y., Lu X.H., 2019. Vegetation structural change since 1981 significantly enhanced the terrestrial carbon sink. Nat. Commun. 10, 4259. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12257-8.

[9]

Chen Y.Z., Feng X.M., Tian H.Q., Wu X.T., Gao Z., Feng Y., Piao S.L., Lv N., Pan N.Q., Fu B.J., 2021. Accelerated increase in vegetation carbon sequestration in China after 2010: a turning point resulting from climate and human interaction. Glob. Change Biol. 27 (22), 5848-5864. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15854.

[10]	Chen Z.L., Lin J.Y., Huang J.L., 2023. Linking ecosystem service flow to water-related ecological security pattern: a methodological approach applied to a coastal province of China. J. Environ. Manage. 345, 118725. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118725.

[11]

Cheng K., Yang H.T., Guan H.C., Ren Y., Chen Y.L., Chen M.X., Yang Z.K., Lin D.Y., Liu W.Y., Xu J.C., Xu G.C., Ma K.P., Guo Q.H., 2024. Unveiling China’s natural and planted forest spatial-temporal dynamics from 1990 to 2020. ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens. 209, 37-50. doi: 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2024.01.024.

[12]	Chu X., Zhan J.Y., Li Z.H., Zhang F., Qi W., 2019. Assessment on forest carbon sequestration in the Three-North Shelterbelt Program region. China. J. Clean. Prod. 215, 382-389. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.296.

[13]	Du J.Q., Fang S.F., Sheng Z.L., Wu J.H., Quan Z.J., Fu Q., 2020. Variations in vegetation dynamics and its cause in national key ecological function zones in China. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 27 (24), 30145-30161. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09211-3.

[14]	Dudney J., Dee L.E., Heilmayr R., Byrnes J., Siegel K., 2025. A causal inference framework for climate change attribution in ecology. Ecol. Lett. 28 (8), e70192. doi: 10.1111/ele.70192.

[15]	Farquhar G.D., Caemmerer S.V., Berry J.A., 1980. A biochemical-model of photosynthetic CO₂ assimilation in leaves of C3 species. Planta 149 (1), 78-90. doi: 10.1007/BF00386231.

[16]	Feng X.M., Fu B.J., Piao S.L., Wang S., Ciais P., Zeng Z.Z., Lü Y.H., Zeng Y., Li Y., Jiang X.H., Wu B.F., 2016. Revegetation in China’s Loess Plateau is approaching sustainable water resource limits. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6 (11), 1019-1022. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3092.

[17]	Gao W.D., Zheng C., Liu X.H., Lu Y.D., Chen Y.F., Wei Y., Ma Y.D., 2022. NDVI-based vegetation dynamics and their responses to climate change and human activities from 1982 to 2020: a case study in the Mu Us Sandy Land. China. Ecol. Indic. 137, 108745. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108745.

[18]	Gou Q.P., Zhu Q.K., 2021. Response of deep soil moisture to different vegetation types in the Loess Plateau of northern Shannxi, China. Sci. Rep. 11 (1), 15098. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-94758-5.

[19]	Gu C.J., Mu X.M., Gao P., Zhao G.J., Sun W.Y., Tan X.J., 2020. Distinguishing the effects of vegetation restoration on runoff and sediment generation on simulated rainfall on the hillslopes of the Loess Plateau of China. Plant. Soil 447 (1-2), 393-412. doi: 10.1007/s11104-019-04392-4.

[20]	Guo Q., Yu C.X., Xu Z.H., Yang Y., Wang X., 2023. Impacts of climate and land-use changes on water yields: similarities and differences among typical watersheds distributed throughout China. J. Hydrol.-Reg. Stud. 45, 101294. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101294.

[21]

Hamel P., Guerry A.D., Polasky S., Han B., Douglass J.A., Hamann M., Janke B., Kuiper J.J., Levrel H., Liu H., Lonsdorf E., McDonald R.I., Nootenboom C., Ouyang Z., Remme R.P., Sharp R.P., Tardieu L., Viguié V., Xu D., Zheng H., Daily G.C., 2021. Mapping the benefits of nature in cities with the InVEST software. Npj Urban Sustain. 1 (1), 25. doi: 10.1038/s42949-021-00027-9.

[22]

He H.L., Wang S.Q., Zhang L., Wang J.B., Ren X.L., Zhou L., Piao S.L., Yan H., Ju W.M., Gu F.X., Yu S.Y., Yang Y.H., Wang M.M., Niu Z.E., Ge R., Yan H.M., Huang M., Zhou G.Y., Bai Y.F., Xie Z.Q., Tang Z.Y., Wu B.F., Zhang L.M., He N.P., Wang Q.F., Yu G.R., 2019. Altered trends in carbon uptake in China’s terrestrial ecosystems under the enhanced summer monsoon and warming hiatus. Natl. Sci. Rev. 6 (3), 505-514. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwz021.

[23]	He L.M., Chen J.M., Pan Y.D., Birdsey R., Kattge J., 2012. Relationships between net primary productivity and forest stand age in U.S. forests. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycle 26 (3), GB3009. doi: 10.1029/2010gb003942.

[24]	Hermoso V., Morán-Ordóñez A., Canessa S., Brotons L., 2019. Realising the potential of Natura 2000 to achieve EU conservation goals as 2020 approaches. Sci. Rep. 9 (1), 16087. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-52625-4.

[25]	Hong S.B., Yin G.D., Piao S.L., Dybzinski R., Cong N., Li X.Y., Wang K., Peñuelas J., Zeng H., Chen A.P., 2020. Divergent responses of soil organic carbon to afforestation. Nat. Sustain. 3 (9), 694-700. doi: 10.1038/s41893-020-0557-y.

[26]	Jia X.X., Shao M.A., Zhu Y.J., Luo Y., 2017. Soil moisture decline due to afforestation across the Loess Plateau, China. J. Hydrol. 546, 113-122. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.011.

[27]	Jin Z., Guo L., Yu Y.L., Luo D., Fan B.H., Chu G.C., 2020. Storm runoff generation in headwater catchments on the Chinese Loess Plateau after long-term vegetation rehabilitation. Sci. Total Environ. 748, 141375. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141375.

[28]	Lan X., Liu Z.Y., Chen X.H., Lin K.R., Cheng L.Y., 2021. Trade-off between carbon sequestration and water loss for vegetation greening in China. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 319, 107522. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2021.107522.

[29]

Li K., Yan X.L., Hou Y., Lv B.Y., Huang Y.Y., Liu J., Han H.T., Li X., 2024. Can ecological zoning act as an environmental management tool for protecting regional habitat quality: causal evidence from the national key ecological function zone in China. J. Clean. Prod. 475, 43623. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143623.

[30]	Li R.N., Zheng H., O’Connor P., Xu H.S., Li Y.K., Lu F., Robinson B.E., Ouyang Z., Hai Y., Daily G.C., 2021. Time and space catch up with restoration programs that ignore ecosystem service trade-offs. Sci. Adv. 7 (14), eabf8650. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abf8650.

[31]	Li Y.R., Chen P., Niu Y., Liang Y.S., Wei T.X., 2022. Dynamics and attributions of ecosystem water yields in China from 2001 to 2020. Ecol. Indic 143, 109373. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109373.

[32]	Liu L.L., Cao W., Wu D., Huang L., 2018. Temporal and spatial variations of ecosystem services in national key ecological function zones. Sci. Geogr. Sin. 38 (9), 1508-1515. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.09.014, (in Chinese).

[33]	Liu Y.B., Xiao J.F., Ju W.M., Zhou Y.L., Wang S.Q., Wu X.C., 2015. Water use efficiency of China’s terrestrial ecosystems and responses to drought. Sci. Rep. 5, 13799. doi: 10.1038/srep13799.

[34]	Lyu J.L., Li G.Q., Otsuki K., Yamanaka N., Wang Y.C., Yue M., Du S., 2023. Different transpiration and growth patterns of the black locust plantation and natural oak forest on China’s Loess Plateau. Ecohydrology 16 (4), e2523. doi: 10.1002/eco.2523.

[35]	Ma L.L., Ma J., Yan P., Tian F., Peñuelas J., Rao M.P., Fu Y.S., Hu Z.H., 2025. Planted forests in China have higher drought risk than natural forests. Glob. Change Biol. 31 (2), e70055. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70055.

[36]	Nissan A., Alcolombri U., Peleg N., Galili N., Jimenez-Martinez J., Molnar P., Holzner M., 2023. Global warming accelerates soil heterotrophic respiration. Nat. Commun. 14 (1), 3452. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-38981-w.

[37]

Niu Z.E., He H.L., Peng S.S., Ren X.L., Zhang L., Gu F.X., Zhu G.F., Peng C.H., Li P., Wang J.B., Ge R., Zeng N., Zhu X.B., Lv Y., Chang Q.Q., Xu Q., Zhang M.Y., Liu W.H., 2021. A process-based model integrating remote sensing data for evaluating ecosystem services. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 13 (6), e2020MS002451. doi: 10.1029/2020ms002451.

[38]	Niu Z.E., 2023. Spatio-temporal characteristic of terrestrial ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies in China from 2000 to 2018 based on a process model. Acta Ecol. Sin. 43 (2), 496-509. doi: 10.5846/stxb202110112855.

[39]	Ren Z.P., Li Z.B., Liu X.L., Li P., Cheng S.D., Xu G.C., 2018. Comparing watershed afforestation and natural revegetation impacts on soil moisture in the semiarid Loess Plateau of China. Sci. Rep. 8, 2972. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-21362-5.

[40]

Sannigrahi S., Zhang Q., Joshi P.K., Sutton P.C., Keesstra S., Roy P.S., Pilla F., Basu B., Wang Y., Jha S., Paul S.K., Sen S., 2020. Examining effects of climate change and land use dynamic on biophysical and economic values of ecosystem services of a natural reserve region. J. Clean. Prod. 257, 120424. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120424.

[41]	Shang R., Chen J.M., Xu M.Z., Lin X.D., Li P., Yu G.R., He N.P., Xu L., Gong P., Liu L.Y., Liu H., Jiao W.Z., 2023. China’s current forest age structure will lead to weakened carbon sinks in the near future. Innovation 4 (6), 100515. doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2023.100515.

[42]	Shao R., Shao W.W., Gu C.J., Zhang B.Q., 2022. Increased interception induced by vegetation restoration counters ecosystem carbon and water exchange efficiency in China. Earths Future 10 (2), e2021EF002464. doi: 10.1029/2021ef002464.

[43]	Shi Y.T., Zhang B., Liang L., Wang S., Zhang H.Y., Sun H.L., Han X.F., 2025. Unfolding the effectiveness of ecological restoration programs in enhancing vegetation carbon sinks across different climate zones in China. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 212, 107974. doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107974.

[44]	Sun S.L., Xiang W.H., Ouyang S., Hu Y.T., Peng C.H., 2024. Balancing water yield and water use efficiency between planted and natural forests: a global analysis. Glob. Change Biol. 30 (11), e17561. doi: 10.1111/gcb.17561.

[45]

Tong X.W., Brandt M., Yue Y.M., Horion S., Wang K.L., De Keersmaecker W., Tian F., Schurgers G., Xiao X.M., Luo Y.Q., Chen C., Myneni R., Shi Z., Chen H.S., Fensholt R., 2018. Increased vegetation growth and carbon stock in China karst via ecological engineering. Nat. Sustain. 1 (1), 44-50. doi: 10.1038/s41893-017-0004-x.

[46]

Tong X.W., Brandt M., Yue Y.M., Ciais P., Rudbeck Jepsen M., Penuelas J., Wigneron J.P., Xiao X.M., Song X.P., Horion S., Rasmussen K., Saatchi S., Fan L., Wang K.L., Zhang B., Chen Z.C., Wang Y.H., Li X.J., Fensholt R., 2020. Forest management in Southern China generates short term extensive carbon sequestration. Nat. Commun. 11 (1), 129. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13798-8.

[47]	Tsai H.-W., Lee Y.-C., 2023. Effects of land use change and crop rotation practices on farmland ecosystem service valuation. Ecol. Indic. 155, 110998. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110998.

[48]

Wang S.H., Zhang Y.G., Ju W.M., Chen J.M., Ciais P., Cescatti A., Sardans J., Janssens I.A., Wu M.S., Berry J.A., Campbell E., Fernández-Martínez M., Alkama R., Sitch S., Friedlingstein P., Smith W.K., Yuan W.P., He W., Lombardozzi D., Kautz M., Zhu D., Lienert S., Kato E., Poulter B., Sanders T.G.M., Krüger I., Wang R., Zeng N., Tian H.Q., Vuichard N., Jain A.K., Wiltshire A., Haverd V., Goll D.S., Peñuelas J., 2020. Recent global decline of CO₂ fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis. Science 370 (6522), 1295-1300. doi: 10.1126/science.abg8637.

[49]

Wang X.M., Ge Q.S., Geng X., Wang Z.S., Gao L., Bryan B.A., Chen S.Q., Su Y.N., Cai D.W., Ye J.S., Sun J.M., Lu H.Y., Che H.Z., Cheng H., Liu H.Y., Liu B.L., Dong Z.B., Cao S.X., Hua T., Chen S.Y., Sun F.B., Luo G.P., Wang Z.T., Hu S., Xu D.Y., Chen M.X., Li D.F., Liu F., Xu X.L., Han D.M., Zheng Y., Xiao F.Y., Li X.B., Wang P., Chen F.H., 2023. Unintended consequences of combating desertification in China. Nat. Commun. 14 (1), 1139. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36835-z.

[50]	Wei S.K., Li X.Y., Wang K., Wang T., Piao S.L., 2025. Two decades of persistent greening in China despite 2023 climate extremes. Sci. China Earth Sci. 68, 1064-1073. doi: 10.1007/s11430-024-1530-7.

[51]	Wu G.N., Lu X.C., Zhao W., Cao R.C., Xie W.Q., Wang L.Y., Wang Q.H., Song J.X., Gao S.B., Li S.G., Hu Z.M., 2023. The increasing contribution of greening to the terrestrial evapotranspiration in China. Ecol. Model. 477, 110273. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110273.

[52]	Xiao Y., Ouyang Z.Y., 2019. Spatial-temporal patterns and driving forces of water retention service in China. Chin. Geogr Sci. 29 (1), 100-111. doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0984-0.

[53]	Yang Y.Y., Zheng H., Kong L.Q., Huang B.B., Xu W.H., Ouyang Z.Y., 2019. Mapping ecosystem services bundles to detect high-and low-value ecosystem services areas for land use management. J. Clean. Prod. 225, 11-17. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.242.

[54]	Yin L.C., Tao F.L., Zhai R., Chen Y., Hu J., Wang Z.H., Fu B.J., 2022. Impacts of future climate change and atmospheric CO₂ concentration on ecosystem water retention service. Earths Future 10 (4), e2021EF002138. doi: 10.1029/2021ef002138.

[55]

Yu Z., Ciais P., Piao S.L., Houghton R.A., Lu C.Q., Tian H.Q., Agathokleous E., Kattel G.R., Sitch S., Goll D., Yue X., Walker A., Friedlingstein P., Jain A.K., Liu S.R., Zhou G.Y., 2022. Forest expansion dominates China’s land carbon sink since 1980. Nat. Commun. 13 (1), 5374. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32961-2.

[56]	Zhai J., Liu Y.P., Hou P., Xiao T., Cao G.Z., 2016. Water conservation service assessment and its spatiotemporal features in national key ecological function zones. Adv. Meteor. 2016 (1), 5194091. doi: 10.1155/2016/5194091.

[57]	Zhang J.H., Zhang Y.L., Wang X., He T.H., Xia H.J., Zhang K.R., Zhang Q.F., 2024a. National forest restoration projects in China: cost-efficiency, and trade-off between carbon sequestration and water consumption. Earths Future 12 (12), e2024EF004976. doi: 10.1029/2024EF004976.

[58]	Zhang M.Y., He H.L., Zhang L., Ren X.L., Shi L., Yu G.R., Niu Z.E., Qin K.Y., Li T.C., 2025a. Ecosystem engineering and global changes are increasingly enhancing China’s terrestrial carbon sinks. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 223, 108514. doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108514.

[59]	Zhang M.Y., He H.L., Zhang L., Yu G.R., Ren X.L., Huang Y.Y., Yuan W.P., Niu Z.E., 2025b. A terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink assessment model considering forest age dynamics (CEVSA-AgeD). J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 17 (2), e2024MS004575. doi: 10.1029/2024MS004575.

[60]

Zhang M.Y., He H.L., Zhang L., Yu G.R., Ren X.L., Lv Y., Niu Z.E., Qin K.Y., Gao Y.N., 2024b. Increased ecological land and atmospheric CO₂ dominate the growth of ecosystem carbon sinks under the regulation of environmental conditions in national key ecological function zones in China. J. Environ. Manage. 366, 121906. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121906.

[61]	Zhang M.Y., Zhang L., He H.L., Ren X.L., Lv Y., Niu Z.E., Chang Q.Q., Xu Q., Liu W.H., 2022. Improvement of ecosystem quality in national key ecological function zones in China during 2000-2015. J. Environ. Manage. 324 (15), 116406. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116406.

[62]	Zhao F.B., Wu Y.P., Ma S., Lei X.H., Liao W.H., 2022. Increased water use efficiency in China and its drivers during 2000-2016. Ecosystems 25 (7), 1476-1492. doi: 10.1007/s10021-021-00727-4.

[63]	Zhou J., Yang J., Tang Z.S., Xue L.Y., Zhang W.L., Zhang J., 2025. Driving mechanisms of ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies in the transition zone between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau. Ecol. Indic. 171, 113148. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113148.