Achieving just transition through convergence in the Carbon Efficiency of Social Progress

Abstract

Improvements in societal well-being are associated with varying levels of environmental impact across countries, posing a major challenge for global sustainability. As climate and development agendas converge, there is growing urgency to understand how countries can advance social progress while minimizing environmental harm. This study is motivated by the hypothesis that a just transition—defined as the shift toward low-carbon societies in which no one is left behind—requires convergence in countries’ ability to decouple social progress from carbon emissions. We introduce the Carbon Efficiency of Social Progress (CESP), a composite indicator constructed as the ratio of per capita carbon footprint to the Social Progress Index (SPI), and analyze its dynamics across 160 countries from 1990 to 2020. Using time-varying factor models based on the Phillips and Sul methodology, we assess whether countries converge in their CESP performance globally and within emission-based subgroups. Our results reveal distinct patterns. Low-emitting countries (below 1.9 tCO₂e per capita) exhibit signs of rapid convergence (β = 0.50; SE = 0.047). High-emitting countries (above 10 tCO₂e per capita) also converge, though at a much slower rate (β = 0.13; SE = 0.179). By contrast, middle-emitting countries (1.9-10 tCO₂e per capita) exhibit significant divergence (β = −0.58; SE = 0.120). These findings indicate that while low-emitting nations follow relatively promising paths, middle- and high-emitting countries face structural barriers that hinder progress toward just transition. Our study contributes to the literature on sustainability convergence and offers insights into how countries can align social development with climate goals under the global just transition framework.

Keywords

Social progress / Just transition / Carbon efficiency / Convergence

Declaration of generative AI and AI-assisted technologies in the writing process

During the preparation of this work the authors used ChatGPT in order to improve the language quality of the manuscript. After using this tool, the authors reviewed and edited the content as needed and take full responsibility for the content of the publication.

Data availability

Data will be made available upon reasonable request.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Mohamed Htitich: Writing - review & editing, Writing - original draft, Visualization, Validation, Software, Methodology, Investigation, Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization. Jaromír Harmáček: Writing - review & editing, Writing - original draft, Validation, Supervision, Resources, Methodology, Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization. Petra Krylova: Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Methodology, Data curation.

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This research, received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. However, Petra Krylova’s participation in this research was supported by Project PID2023-148534NB-I00, funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, Agencia Estatal de Investigación MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/FEDER, UE. Open access publication costs were funded by Palacký University Olomouc through its Open Access Fund.

At the time of writing the manuscript, all three authors were also involved with the Social Progress Imperative, a U.S.-based non-profit organization that produces the Social Progress Index. Mohamed Htitich was a Research Associate, and Petra Krylova was the Global Research Director. Jaromír Harmáček is the current Global Research Director. The CESP indicator was originally developed as part of the authors’ work for the Social Progress Imperative.

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100421

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