Emerging lessons on how participatory scenario planning can support sustainable land management and climate resilience

Abstract

Land degradation, coupled with climate change impacts, poses serious threats to global land health and human well-being. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) has become a key tool for exploring these interconnected challenges; however, its progress and effectiveness remain underexplored. This study reviews 46 papers, using PRISMA guidelines, to investigate how PSP supports sustainable land management and climate resilience. We document how PSP applications have evolved from a biophysical focus to one addressing broader environmental, societal, and economic challenges. Disparities in how participants engage across PSP phases document the need for more equitable and meaningful participation. Clustering future scenarios reveals the complex interconnections among ecological, social, and economic factors underpinning land management and climate resilience, underscoring the need for inclusive and integrated strategies. From the emerging trends, we identify opportunities to advance PSP implementation, including early engagement of decision-makers, balanced representation and equitable power dynamics, meaningful participation, cross-disciplinary collaboration, integration of human-nature relationships, and regular revision of future pathways. Overall, our review highlights PSP’s potential to co-create inclusive, equitable scenarios and actionable pathways towards sustainable and resilient land use futures.

Keywords

Agriculture / Food security / Climate change / Community engagement / Sustainable development / Development policy

Declaration of generative AI and AI-assisted technologies in the writing process

During the preparation of this work, the authors used ChatGPT to support improvements in language clarity, coherence, and the overall presentation of the manuscript. After using this tool, the authors reviewed and edited the content as needed and take full responsibility for the content of the publication.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Pattrawut Pusingha: Writing - original draft, Visualization, Methodology, Formal analysis, Conceptualization, Investigation, Writing - review & editing. Robert A. Marchant: Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Methodology, Conceptualization. Richard M. Friend: Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Methodology, Conceptualization. Rui Han: Formal analysis.

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Royal Thai Government Scholarship in Science and Technology and the Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Thailand (FERS, Mahidol University). We are grateful to Professor Lindsay C. Stringer (Department of Environment and Geography; Director of the York Environmental Sustainability Institute (YESI), University of York, UK) for critical feedback that strengthened the manuscript. We thank Dalad Senthong (Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Thailand) and Assistant Professor Piangjai Peerakiatkhajohn (FERS, Mahidol University) for their critical assessment of the reviewed papers. We also thank Assistant Professor Piangjai Peerakiatkhajohn and Dr Praewa Wongburi (FERS, Mahidol University) for their feedback on data grouping for further analysis, and Dr Sawanya Saetae (FERS, Mahidol University) for support with data visualisation.

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100405.

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