Increasing meridional disparity of population exposure to heat stress

Abstract

Global warming and socioeconomic development are expected to exacerbate human exposure to heat stress, but the extent and inequality of such changes remain unclear. Here, we quantified the future population exposure to heat stress (PEHS) under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios using a novel decomposition framework that separates the contributions of climate change, population change, and their interaction. Results show that global PEHS will increase substantially during the 21st century, with low-latitude regions experiencing the largest absolute increases, and high-latitude regions facing the largest relative increases. Globally, projected increases in PEHS under SSP3-7.0 are roughly three times those under SSP1-2.6, with low latitudes contributing about 70 %-75 % of the global total. SSP1-2.6 most effectively limits future heat exposure, with the highest risks in low-latitude developing regions, underscoring the need for low-emission pathways and targeted population and urbanization management. The findings highlight the urgent need for both climate mitigation and population adaptation strategies to address the growing and uneven heat exposure risks worldwide.

Keywords

Population exposure / Extreme heatwave / Meridional disparity

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Xiaofan Xu: Writing - review & editing, Writing - original draft, Methodology, Investigation, Formal analysis. Yuxiao Kong: Writing - review & editing, Investigation. Jintao Zhang: Writing - review & editing. Jianping Duan: Writing - review & editing, Conceptualization. Minghong Tan: Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Project administration, Investigation, Formal analysis. Xue Yang: Writing - review & editing, Investigation. Hongzhou Zhu: Writing - review & editing. Deliang Chen: Conceptualization.

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This research is funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42271273) and Swedish Research Council (VR: 2021-02163).

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100391.

References

[1] Ahmadalipour A., Moradkhani H., Kumar M., 2019. Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest. Clim. Change 152, 569-579. doi: 10.1007/s10584-018-2348-2.

[2] Alexander L.V., Zhang X., Peterson T.C., Caesar J., Gleason B., Tank A.K., Haylock M., Collins D., Trewin B., Rahimzadeh F., Tagipour A., Rupa Kumar K., Revadekar J., Griffiths G., Vincent L., Stephenson D.B., Burn J., Aguilar E., Brunet M., Taylor M., New M., Zhai P., Rusticucci M., Vazquez-Aguirre J.L., 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 111 (D5), D05109. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006290.

[3] Altizer S., Dobson A., Hosseini P., Hudson P., Pascual M., 2006. Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecol. Lett. 9 (4), 467-484. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00879.x.

[4] Anderson G.B., Bell M.L., 2011. Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities. Environ. Health Perspect. 119 (2), 210-218. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1002313.

[5] Baldwin J.W., 2023. Humidity’s role in heat-related health outcomes: a heated debate. Environ. Health Perspect. 131, 076001. doi: 10.1289/EHP11807.

[6] Black R., Adger W.N., Arnell N., Dercon S., Geddes A., Thomas D., 2011. The effect of environmental change on human migration. Glob. Environ. Change 21, S3-S11. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001.

[7] Buzan J.R., Huber M., 2020. Moist heat stress on a hotter earth. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 48, 623-655. doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060100.

[8] Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University, 2018. Gridded Population of the world, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population count, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), New York.

[9] Chandra S.V.S., Gunther S.H., Kjellstrom T., Lee J.K.W., 2025. Advancing heat wave definitions: a policy review towards prioritizing health impacts of extreme heat. Environ. Res. Lett. 20 (3), 033004. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb5a0.

[10] Chen X., Li N., Zhang Z., Liu J., Wang F., 2020. Estimation of future global population exposure to heatwaves —based on the heat stress index. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 16, 424. doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.253.

[11] Chen H., He W., Sun J., Chen L., 2022. Increases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in China. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 064013. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac69fc.

[12] Chen X., Li N., Jiang D., 2023. Global and regional changes in working-age population exposure to heat extremes under climate change. J. Geogr. Sci. 33, 1877-1896. doi: 10.1007/s11442-023-2157-z.

[13] Christidis N., Jones G.S., Stott P.A., 2015. Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5 (1), 46-50. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2468.

[14] Christidis N., McCarthy M., Stott P.A., 2020. The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the United Kingdom. Nat. Commun. 11, 3093. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0.

[15] Cleland J., 2013. World population growth; past, present and future. Environ. Resour. Econ. 55, 543-554. doi: 10.1007/s10640-013-9675-6.

[16] Coffel E.D., Horton R.M., De Sherbinin A., 2018. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 014001. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e.

[17] Conceição P., 2020. Human Development Report 2020: The Next Frontier:Human Development and the Anthropocene. UNDP-HDRO, New York.

[18] Dai K., Shen S., Cheng C., 2022. Evaluation and analysis of the projected population of China. Sci. Rep. 12, 3644. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-07646-x.

[19] Davies-Jones R., 2008. An efficient and accurate method for computing the wetbulb temperature along pseudoadiabats. Mon. Weath. Rev. 136, 2764-2785. doi: 10.1175/2007MWR2224.1.

[20] Ding T., Qian W., Yan Z., 2010. Changes in hot days and heat waves in China during 1961-2007. Int. J. Climatol. 30, 1452-1462. doi: 10.1002/joc.1989.

[21] Dong Z., Wang L., Sun Y., Hu T., Limsakul A., Singhruck P., Pimonsree S., 2021. Heatwaves in Southeast Asia and their changes in a warmer world. Earths Future 9, e2021EF001992. doi: 10.1029/2021EF001992.

[22] Dong D., Tao H., Zhang Z., 2023. Historic evolution of population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Sci. Rep. 13, 7401. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-34123-w.

[23] Dunne J.P., Stouffer R.J., John J.G., 2013. Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 563-566. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1827.

[24] Ebi K.L., Capon A., Berry P., Broderick C., de Dear R., Havenith G., Honda Y., Kovats R.S., Ma W., Malik A., Morris N.B., Nybo L., Seneviratne S.I., Vanos J., Jay O., 2021. Hot weather and heat extremes: health risks. Lancet 398 (10301), 698-708. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01208-3.

[25] Ebi K.L., Vanos J.K., Baldwin J.W., Bell J.E., Hondula D.M., Saha M.V., Spector J.T., 2023. Extreme heat and health: from science to practice. Lancet Planet. Health 7 (3), e219-e227. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00300-1.

[26] Eyring V., Bony S., Meehl G.A., Senior C.A., Stevens B., Stouffer R.J., Taylor K.E., 2016. Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937-1958. doi: 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016.

[27] Fang X., Wang A., Fong S., Lin W., Liu J., 2008. Changes of reanalysis-derived Northern Hemisphere summer warm extreme indices during 1948-2006 and links with climate variability. Glob. Planet. Change 63, 67-78. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.06.003.

[28] Foster G., Rahmstorf S., 2011. Global temperature evolution 1979-2010. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 044022. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.

[29] González-Tokman D., Córdoba-Aguilar A., Dáttilo W., Lira-Noriega A., Sánchez- Guillén R.A., Villalobos F., 2020. Insect responses to heat: physiological mechanisms, evolution and ecological implications in a warming world. Biol. Rev. 95 (3), 802-821. doi: 10.1111/brv.12588.

[30] Han Q., Sun S., Liu Z., Xu W., Shi P., 2022. Accelerated exacerbation of global extreme heatwaves under warming scenarios. Int. J. Climatol. 42, 5430-5441. doi: 10.1002/joc.7541.

[31] Hansen J., Sato M., Ruedy R., Lo K., Lea D.W., Medina-Elizade M., 2006. Global temperature change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 103 (39), 14288-14293. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0606291103.

[32] Harrington L.J., Frame D.J., Fischer E.M., Hawkins E., Joshi M., Jones C.D., 2016. Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 055007. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007.

[33] He C., Kim H., Hashizume M., Lee W., Honda Y., Kim S.E., Kinney P.L., Schneider A., Zhang Y.Q., Zhu Y.X., Zhou L., Chen R.J., Kan H.D., 2022. The effects of nighttime warming on mortality burden under future climate change scenarios: a modelling study. Lancet Planet. Health 6 (8), e648-e657. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00139-5.

[34] Hempel S., Frieler K., Warszawski L., Schewe J., Piontek F., 2013. A trendpreserving bias correction -the ISI-MIP approach. Earth Syst. Dynam. 4, 219-236. doi: 10.5194/esd-4-219-2013.

[35] Heo S., Bell M.L., Lee J.T., 2019. Comparison of health risks by heat wave definition: applicability of wet-bulb globe temperature for heat wave criteria. Environ. Res. 168, 158-170. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.09.032.

[36] Huang D., Zhang L., Gao G., Sun S., 2018. Projected changes in population exposure to extreme heat in China under a RCP8.5 scenario. J. Geogr. Sci. 28, 1371-1384. doi: 10.1007/s11442-018-1550-5.

[37] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2021. Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

[38] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2022. Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2022:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

[39] ISO, 2017. Ergonomics of the thermal environment — assessment of heat stress using the WBGT (wet bulb globe temperature) index. ISO 7243.

[40] Jones B., O’Neill B.C., 2016. Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 084003. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003.

[41] Jones B., O’Neill B.C., McDaniel L., McGinnis S., Mearns L.O., Tebaldi C., 2015. Future population exposure to US heat extremes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 652-655. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2631.

[42] KC S., Lutz W., 2017. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 181-192. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004.

[43] Klein T., Anderegg W.R.L., 2021. A vast increase in heat exposure in the 21st century is driven by global warming and urban population growth. Sust. Cities Soc. 73, 103098. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.103098.

[44] Kone Z.L., Liu M.Y., Mattoo A., Ozden C., Sharma S., 2018. Internal borders and migration in India. J. Econ. Geogr. 18, 729-759. doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbx045.

[45] Lange S., 2019. Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0). Geosci. Model Dev. 12, 3055-3070. doi: 10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019.

[46] Li D., Yuan J., Kopp R.E., 2020a. Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 064003. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d04.

[47] Li C., Sun Y., Zwiers F., Wang D., Zhang X., Chen G., Wu H., 2020b. Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in China with human-induced climate change. J. Clim. 33, 5697-5711. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0492.1.

[48] Li X., Chen Y., Zhu Y., Shi Y., An N., Liao Z., 2023. Underestimated increase and intensification of humid-heat extremes across southeast China due to humidity data inhomogeneity. Front. Environ. Sci. 10, 1104039. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2022.1104039.

[49] Li W., Liao H., Zeng H., Zhang Y., 2024. Additional outpatient expenditures due to heatwaves: evidence from the Chinese older population. Environ. Res. Lett. 19, 094043. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a8.

[50] Li Z., Sun J., Xiao J., Wen X., Lai G., Wang M., Du J., Li X., Xu X., Zhong K., 2025. Dynamic changes of extreme temperature occurrence time in China. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 156, 38. doi: 10.1007/s00704-024-05249-2.

[51] Liu Z., Anderson B., Yan K., Dong W., Liao H., Shi P., 2017. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change. Sci. Rep. 7, 43909. doi: 10.1038/srep43909.

[52] Liu Y., Song C.Q., Ye S.J., Lv J.Y., Gao P.C., 2025. Daily max simplified wet-bulb globe temperature and its climate networks for teleconnection study, 1940-2022. Sci. Data 12, 584. doi: 10.1038/s41597-025-04933-w.

[53] Ma F., Yuan X., 2021. Impact of climate and population changes on the increasing exposure to summertime compound hot extremes. Sci. Total Environ. 772, 145004. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145004.

[54] McCulloch M.T., Winter A., Sherman C.E., Trotter J.A., 2024. 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 171-177. doi: 10.1038/s41558-023-01919-7.

[55] Mukherjee S., Mishra A.K., Mann M.E., Raymond C., 2021. Anthropogenic warming and population growth may double US heat stress by the late 21st Century. Earths Future 9, e2020EF001886. doi: 10.1029/2020EF001886.

[56] Orlov A., Sillmann J., Aunan K., Kjellstrom T., Aaheim A., 2020. Economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity due to global warming. Glob. Environ. Change 63, 102087. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102087.

[57] Ostro B.D., Roth L.A., Green R.S., Basu R., 2009. Estimating the mortality effect of the July 2006 California heat wave. Environ. Res. 109, 614-619. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2009.03.010.

[58] Parsons L.A., Shindell D., Tigchelaar M., Zhang Y., Spector J.T., 2021. Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world. Nat. Commun. 12, 7286. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27328-y.

[59] Parsons L.A., Masuda Y.J., Kroeger T., Shindell D., Wolff N.H., Spector J.T., 2022. Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 014050. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3dae.

[60] Perkins S.E., Alexander L.V., 2013. On the measurement of heat waves. J. Clim. 26, 4500-4517. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1.

[61] Perkins S.E., Alexander L.V., Nairn J.R., 2012. Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, 2012GL053361. doi: 10.1029/2012GL053361.

[62] Perkins-Kirkpatrick S.E., Lewis S.C., 2020. Increasing trends in regional heatwaves. Nat. Commun. 11, 3357. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16970-7.

[63] Plumer B., Popovich N., 2021. Who has the most historical responsibility for climate change? The New York Times, Nov. 12th 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/12/climate/cop26-emissions-compensation.html.

[64] Qin P., Xie Z., 2023. Increased population exposure to heat and wet extremes moving from Chinese to global 1.5 or 2.0 °C Warming. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 128, e2023JD039615. doi: 10.1029/2023JD039615.

[65] Qiu W., Yan X., 2020. The trend of heatwave events in the Northern Hemisphere. Phys. Chem. Earth 116, 102855. doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2020.102855.

[66] Raymond C., Singh D., Horton R.M., 2017. Spatiotemporal patterns and synoptics of extreme wet-bulb temperature in the contiguous United States. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 122, 13108-13124. doi: 10.1002/2017JD027140.

[67] Rohat G., Flacke J., Dosio A., Dao H., Van Maarseveen M., 2019. Projections of human exposure to dangerous heat in African cities under multiple socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Earths Future 7, 528-546. doi: 10.1029/2018EF001020.

[68] Roser M., Rodés-Guirao L., 2013. Future population growth. Published online at Our- WorldInData.org.

[69] Royé D., Sera F., Tobías A., Lowe R., Gasparrini A., Pascal M., de’Donato F., Nunes B., Teixeira J.P., 2021. Effects of hot nights on mortality in Southern Europe. Epidemiology 32, 487-498. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001359.

[70] Samset B.H., Zhou C., Fuglestvedt J.S., Lund M.T., Marotzke J., Zelinka M.D., 2023. Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990. Commun. Earth Environ. 4, 400. doi: 10.1038/s43247-023-01061-4.

[71] Schlenker W., Roberts M.J., 2009. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 15594-15598. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0906865106.

[72] Sherwood S.C., Huber M., 2010. An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107, 9552-9555. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0913352107.

[73] Sherwood S.C., 2018. How important is humidity in heat stress? J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 123 (21), 11808-11810. doi: 10.1029/2018JD028969.

[74] Sun X., Ge F., Fan Y., Zhu S., Chen Q., 2022. Will population exposure to heat extremes intensify over Southeast Asia in a warmer world? Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 044006. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac48b6.

[75] Sun X., Ge F., Chen Q., Fraedrich K., Li X., 2023. How striking is the intergenerational difference in exposure to compound heatwaves over Southeast Asia? Earths Future 11, e2022EF003179. doi: 10.1029/2022EF003179.

[76] Tan M., Li X., Li S., Xin L., Wang X., Li Q., Li W., Li Y., Xiang W., 2018. Modeling population density based on nighttime light images and land use data in China. Appl. Geogr. 90, 239-247. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.012.

[77] Teixeira E.I., Fischer G., Van Velthuizen H., Walter C., Ewert F., 2013. Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change. Agric. For. Meteorol. 170, 206-215. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.002.

[78] Tian P., Zhang F., Yan Y., Liu Y., Zhang H., Li J., 2025. Spatial inequalities in global population exposure to extreme heats and heatwaves. Appl. Geogr. 174, 103474. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2024.103474.

[79] Ullah S., You Q., Chen D., Sachindra D.A., AghaKouchak A., Kang S., Li M., Zhai P., Ullah W., 2022. Future population exposure to daytime and nighttime heat waves in South Asia. Earths Future 10, e2021EF002511. doi: 10.1029/2021EF002511.

[80] Van Kerkhove M.D., Vandemaele K.A.H., Shinde V., Jaramillo-Gutierrez G., Koukounari A., Donnelly C.A., Carlino L.O., Owen R., Paterson B., Pelletier L., 2011. Risk factors for severe outcomes following 2009 influenza A (H1N1) infection: a global pooled analysis. PLoS Med. 8, e1001053. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001053.

[81] Vitousek P.M., 1994. Beyond global warming: ecology and global change. Ecology 75, 1861-1876. doi: 10.2307/1941591.

[82] Wang Y., Dong L., Liu Y., Huang Z., Liu Y., 2019. Migration patterns in China extracted from mobile positioning data. Habitat Int. 86, 71-80. doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2019.03.002.

[83] Wang F., Zheng B., Zhang J.T., Zhou Y.Y., Jia M.R., 2022a. Potential heat-risk avoidance from nationally determined emission reductions targets in the future. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 055007. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac66f4.

[84] Wang X., He L., Ma X., Bie Q., Luo L., Xiong Y., Ye J., 2022b. The emergence of prolonged deadly humid heatwaves. Int. J. Climatol. 42, 8607-8618. doi: 10.1002/joc.7750.

[85] Wang J., Zhao Q., Yang J., 2023. Global health risks under intensified heatwaves: exposure, inequality, and future burden. Environ. Health Perspect. 131 (4), 47001. doi: 10.1289/EHP11610.

[86] Willett K.M., Sherwood S., 2012. Exceedance of heat index thresholds for 15 regions under a warming climate using the wet-bulb globe temperature. Int. J. Climatol. 32, 161-177. doi: 10.1002/joc.2257.

[87] Wu S.J., Luo M., Zhao R., Li J., Sun P., Liu Z., Wang X.Y., Wang P., Zhang H., 2023. Local physical processes associated with daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 6, 36. doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00365-8.

[88] Xi D., Liu L., Zhang M., Huang C., Burkart K.G., Ebi K., Zeng Y., Ji J.S., 2024. Risk factors associated with heatwave mortality in Chinese adults over 65 years. Nat. Med. 30, 1489-1498. doi: 10.1038/s41591-024-02880-4.

[89] Xu Z.W., Tong S.L., Cheng J., Zhang Y.Z., Wang N., Zhang Y.Q., Hayixibayi A., Hu W.B., 2019. Heatwaves, hospitalizations for alzheimer’s disease, and postdischarge deaths: a population-based cohort study. Environ. Res. 178, 108714. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108714.

[90] Xu C., Kohler T.A., Lenton T.M., Svenning J.-C., Scheffer M., 2020. Future of the human climate niche. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 11350-11355. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1910114117.

[91] Yaglou C.P., Minaed D., 1957. Control of heat casualties at military training centers. Arch. Ind. Health 16 (4), 302-316.

[92] Zhang J., You Q., Ren G., Ullah S., Normatov I., Chen D., 2023a. Inequality of global thermal comfort conditions changes in a warmer world. Earths Future 11, e2022EF003109. doi: 10.1029/2022EF003109.

[93] Zhang J., You Q., Ren G., Ullah S., 2023b. Substantial increase in human-perceived heatwaves in eastern China in a warmer future. Atmos. Res. 283, 106554. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106554.

[94] Zhang H., Li X., Wang S., Wu T., Yang X., Wang N., Huang L., Feng Z., He Z., Wang Q., Ling L., Zhou W., 2024. Association between extreme heat and outpatient visits for mental disorders: a time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China. GeoHealth 8, e2024GH001165. doi: 10.1029/2024GH001165.

[95] Zhao Y., Dirmeyer P.A., Yang X., 2022. The global pattern of surface humidity and its response to climate change. Nat. Commun. 13, 4839. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32594-1.

[96] Zhao Y., Dirmeyer P.A., Yang X., 2023. Global inequities in heat-related mortality under future warming scenarios. Nat. Commun. 14, 3267. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40599-x.

[97] Zhu Q., Ye P., Wang Y., Duan L., He G., Er Y., Jin Y., Ji C., Hu J., Deng X., Ma W., Liu T., 2024. Heatwaves increase road traffic injury morbidity risk and burden in China and its provinces. Environ. Int. 188, 108760. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108760.