Temperature drives the variations in cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave events under future climate in Northeast China

Abstract

Exposure assessment is critical for hazard risk management. It is important to investigate the cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events because of their severe impacts on agriculture. We quantified the variations in CDHW characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and magnitude) and the cropland exposure to CDHW events in Northeast China using 20 CMIP6 climate projections for each of the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicate that the intensification of CDHW events leading to an anticipated increase in cropland exposure ranges from 1.6-fold to 5.8-fold (the range describes the differences among SSPs), with the west and northeast of the region poised to experience more pronounced increases. Notably, adherence to the SSP126 pathway can reduce both the increase rate of CDHW magnitude and cropland exposure compared to other SSPs. Path analysis demonstrates that cropland exposure is primarily driven by maximum temperature (Tmax). Although precipitation (Pre) increases (0.36-0.75 mm year^-1), the rise in potential evapotranspiration (PET) due to global warming is higher than that of Pre (0.26-1.07 mm year^-1) except for SSP126, resulting in more drought events. Futhermore, elevated Tmax increases the frequency of extreme temperature events. Therefore, increases in Tmax and agricultural land area collectively contribute to exposure rise, with Tmax being the dominant factor in this process. Our findings emphasize the pivotal role of regulating the development pathway into SSP126 for sustainable agriculture, and optimizing crop patterns and planting heat-tolerant crop varieties are recommended for CDHW adaption.

Keywords

Compound drought and heatwave events / Cropland exposure / Northeast China / Risk management / CMIP6

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Chuanwei Zhang: Writing - original draft, Software, Methodology, Data curation, Conceptualization. Jiangbo Gao: Writing - review & editing, Funding acquisition. Lulu Liu: Software, Data curation. Yanjun Shen: Writing - review & editing, Funding acquisition, Conceptualization. Shaohong Wu: Writing - review & editing, Conceptualization.

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2023YFF0805704), and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA28020503).

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100292.

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