Delineation of future urban growth boundaries on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by integrating socioeconomic development and ecosystem services conservation

Qiaoxian Bai; Zhifeng Liu; Binghua Gong; Shuhui Liu; Xufeng Mao; Chunyang He

doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282

Geography and Sustainability ›› 2025, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (4) :100282 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282

Research Article

review-article

Delineation of future urban growth boundaries on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by integrating socioeconomic development and ecosystem services conservation

Qiaoxian Bai ^a^,^*
, Zhifeng Liu ^a^,^b^,^*
, Binghua Gong ^a^,^*
, Shuhui Liu ^c^,^*
, Xufeng Mao ^d^,^e^,^*
, Chunyang He ^a^,^b^,^f^,^g^,^*

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^aState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance & School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

^bAcademy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining 810008, China

^cQinghai Provincial Institute of Land and Spatial Planning, Xining 810008, China

^dKey Laboratory of Physical Geography and Environmental Processes, College of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China

^eKey Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Land Surface Processes and Ecological Conservation of Chinese Ministry of Education, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, China

^fKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

^gAcademy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China

* 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, PR China. E-mail addresses: qiaoxian_bai@mail.bnu.edu.cn (Q. Bai),

zhifeng.liu@bnu.edu.cn (Z. Liu),

gongbh@mail.bnu.edu.cn (B. Gong),

398134167@qq.com (S. Liu),

maoxufeng@yeah.net (X. Mao),

hcy@bnu.edu.cn (C. He).

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Abstract

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) serves as a vital ecological security barrier in China and the broader Asian region. The delineation of urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in this region with consideration of socioeconomic development and ecological protection is urgently needed, but there is a lack of such research. The objective of this study is to delineate the UGBs on the QXP during 2020–2100 to simultaneously meet the needs of socioeconomic development and ecosystem services (ESs) protection. To achieve this purpose, under a scenario matrix integrating shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and ESs protection, the urban expansion on the QXP during 2020–2100 was simulated by coupling the ESs assessment models and the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Finally, we compared the spatial patterns of the UGBs and the conservation effectiveness of ESs under different scenarios. The extent of UGBs on the QXP is projected to reach 2,045.60–2,231.10 km², which is 62.23 %–76.95 % greater than the urban land area (1,260.90 km²) in 2020. Protecting the ESs can reduce the loss of the average natural habitat quality, food production, and carbon sequestration by 33.29 %–34.27 %, 8.61 %–18.23 %, and 36.56 %–40.34 %, respectively. Protecting food production and carbon sequestration in Qinghai Province are more effective, but in the Xizang Autonomous Region, protecting ESs has a considerable trade-off effect. The UGBs delineated in this study can offer a reference for future urban planning on the QXP.

Keywords

Qinghai-Xizang Plateau / Urban expansion / Urban landscape sustainability / Ecosystem services / Shared socioeconomic pathways

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Qiaoxian Bai, Zhifeng Liu, Binghua Gong, Shuhui Liu, Xufeng Mao, Chunyang He. Delineation of future urban growth boundaries on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by integrating socioeconomic development and ecosystem services conservation. Geography and Sustainability, 2025, 6(4): 100282 DOI:10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282

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CRediT authorship contribution statement

Qiaoxian Bai: Writing – original draft, Methodology, Formal analysis, Data curation. Zhifeng Liu: Writing – review & editing, Supervision, Project administration, Methodology. Binghua Gong: Writing – review & editing, Methodology. Shuhui Liu: Writing – review & editing. Xufeng Mao: Writing – review & editing. Chunyang He: Writing – review & editing.

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (Grant No. 2019QZKK0405) and the Science and Technology Department of Qinghai Province (Grant No. 2023-ZJ-929 M). It was also supported by the project from State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance, China.

Data availability

The data available for download through the National Tibetan Plateau Science Data Centre website (https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/disallow/174b373f-ff47-4537-ab7e-080be5291b7b).

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