Coastal salt marsh changes in China: Landscape pattern, driving factors, and carbon dynamics

Abstract

Coastal salt marshes provide critical ecological services, including carbon sequestration. However, the landscape patterns, driving factors, and carbon dynamics associated with salt marsh losses and gains remain insufficiently explored, which is vital for effective restoration. This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of these aspects across China, with a focus on species-specific differences. Based on historical salt marsh data, landscape analysis was applied for identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of changes. XGBoost algorithm was used for driving factor analysis. Carbon dynamics derived from salt marsh changes were estimated with statistical calculation. Our results indicated that the distribution patterns of salt marshes, as indicated by mean center, ellipse area, and landscape indices, varied significantly from 1985 to 2019, particularly between 2005 and 2010. Native species, such as Phragmites australis and Suaeda salsa, experienced significant losses with a 72 % reduction, while exotic species Spartina alterniflora showed substantial gains with a 680-fold. Human disturbances emerged as the primary driver of these changes, with mean temperature and precipitation influencing certain regions and years. Overall, salt marsh changes resulted in a net emission of 68.1 Mt CO₂, with the highest emission in Shandong and linked to the loss of Phragmites australis. Conversely, carbon sequestration equivalent to 11.1 Mt CO₂ mainly resulted from the expansion of Spartina alterniflora, with Shanghai contributing the most. This species-specific and site-specific analysis of landscape patterns, drivers, and carbon dynamics in China could enhance our understanding of salt marsh changes and offer valuable insights for targeted restoration efforts at both local and national levels.

Keywords

Salt marsh / Species-specific difference / Landscape index / Carbon emission/sequestration / Human disturbance / Environmental factor

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Jiali Gu: Writing -review & editing, Writing -original draft, Visual- ization, Methodology, Formal analysis, Conceptualization.Jiaping Wu: Writing -review & editing, Conceptualization.Dongfeng Xie: Writing -review & editing, Funding acquisition.

Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the key project of Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. LZJWZ23E090003 ), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42176170 ).

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100281.

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