How do tropical active fires respond to intra-annual climate change in the early 21st century?

Abstract

The interactions between fire, ecosystems, and climate are complex. Tropical ecosystems have dominated global active fires nowadays, yet its causes, mechanisms, and consequences remain relatively poorly understood. To investigate temporal response of remotely-sensed active fires to intra-annual climate change, several 1-km datasets, including the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 (MODIS C6) active fires and the Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth’s Land Surface Areas (CHELSA) climate variables, were gathered to examine the climatic characteristics of active fire incidences, fire-climate correlations, and the average monthly response of active fire occurrences to climate change using the Geographic Information System (GIS) Fishnet tool, Theil-Sen Median slope estimation, Mann-Kendall significance test, and Pearson’s correlation. We concluded that climate variables’ trends of nearly two-decade active fires displayed varied degrees of increment in precipitation (Pre), temperature (Tas), and surface downwelling shortwave radiation (Rsds) and inconsistent decrement in near-surface relative humidity (Hurs) and near-surface wind speed (sfcWind). MODIS multi-year (2003–2018) active fires were moderately to strongly correlated negatively with Pre and Hurs at 10 km grid-resolution but positively with sfcWind and Rsds, showing marked geographical variations in correlation direction and strength. The most significant finding is the newly observed inverse relationship between active fires and precipitation on both sides of the equator. High occurrence areas of active fires regularly appear back and forth along with latitudinal changes (at one-degree intervals) in monthly minimum precipitation between the tropical Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The present study contributes to exploring the underlying mechanism of fire-climate interactions against the backdrop of climate warming.

Keywords

Active fires / Climate change / Minimum monthly precipitation / High fire season / The tropics

Data available statement

The data supporting the study’s findings are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Peng Li: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Validation, Supervision, Software, Project administration, Methodology, Investigation, Funding acquisition, Formal analysis, Conceptualization. Xianghao Jin: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Visualization, Validation, Software, Resources, Methodology, Investigation, Formal analysis, Data curation. Xia Li: Writing – review & editing, Validation, Supervision, Resources.

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This study is funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 42371282 and 42130508), the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (Grant No. 2019QZKK1006), and Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. 2020055). The authors are thankful to the anonymous referees and the Editorial Office for their valuable comments and suggestions that improve the quality of manuscript.

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2024.100253.

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