Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type

Abstract

Climate change threatens China’s rice production, making it crucial to assess the impact of climate change and climate year type (CYT) on rice production across regions to safeguard food security. The impact of climate change under nine CYTs with different combinations of temperature and precipitation on two rice cropping systems, including single rice and double rice (early and late rice) was evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) the Northeast region was expected to undergo the greatest warming of 2.03–2.48 °C, and future climate conditions would be dominated by Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs across all regions. (2) Climate change would significantly shorten anthesis days after sowing and maturity days after sowing of single rice by 6–12 days and 9–24 days, with little change observed for late rice (< 1 day). Late rice yield suffered more from climate change compared to single and early rice yield, declining by 8.8 %–16.13 %. (3) Different CYTs exhibited varying impacts on rice yields. Yields were projected to decrease by approximately 4.765 % to 18.645 % in Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs. Conversely, the Northeast region was anticipated to experience an increase in yield. (4) Relationships between rice yield and meteorological factors varied by region, variety, and CYT. Among the nine CYTs, high killing degree days, mean daily temperature, mean solar radiation and warm spell duration index were the main factors influencing changes in rice yield, explaining nearly 80 % of yield change. Our results would help to develop adaptation strategies in different regions and rice cropping systems.

Keywords

Rice / Yield / Climate year type / Climate change / China

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Lunche Wang: Writing – review & editing, Investigation, Funding acquisition, Conceptualization. Danhua Zhong: Writing – original draft, Formal analysis, Data curation. Xinxin Chen: Writing – review & editing, Investigation, Data curation. Zigeng Niu: Validation, Supervision, Project administration. Qian Cao: Writing – review & editing, Supervision, Resources.

Declaration of competing interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 42371354, 42375129) and Fundamental Research Funds for National University, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan (Grant No. CUGDCJJ202201).

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.006.

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