Strong direct and indirect influences of climate change on water yield confirmed by the Budyko framework

Abstract

Research findings concerning the main processes influencing water resources differ substantially, and so the topic remains controversial. Recent studies indicate that the changes in water yield, expressed through the n-parameter of Budyko framework, are associated with vegetation coverage changes. Here, we use runoff measurements and outputs from 13 dynamic global vegetation models, to investigate the underlying drivers of the n-parameter changes. Unlike previous studies, we instead find that climate change is the primary driver of adjustments on water resources. Changing climatic characteristics, particularly the intensity and seasonality of rainfall, modulates the runoff generation process. Indirect effects of climate change occur through altering vegetation properties, which in turn also impact river flow. We also find that in the arid and sparse vegetation regions, water yield is more sensitive to changes in n-parameter. Thus, the Budyko framework provides a reliable parameter-sparse representation of runoff changes, and reveals that terrestrial water cycle is changing substantially under climate change. This climate forcing requires on-going investigation to generate more refined and reliable projections of future water availability.

Keywords

Water cycle / Climate change / Atmospheric CO₂ / Land cover change / Runoff

Author contributions

S.P. designed the research. H.Y. performed analysis and created all the figures. H.Y. and S.P. wrote the first draft of manuscript. All authors contributed to interpretation of the results and to the text.

Declaration of interests

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41988101). We acknowledge the TRENDY Modeling Group for producing and making available their model output.

Supplery materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi: 10.1016/j.geosus.2021.11.001.

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