T21 China 2050: A Tool for National Sustainable Development Planning

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations 2030 Agenda are a key focus for implementing the Sustainable Development (SD) concept. But generally speaking, SD goals and targets are continuously evolving, country specific, complex to implement, and are often given relatively short time horizons, such as the 15-year horizon for the SDGs. Many SD issues need a much longer time horizon as the policy interventions to deal with these issues can take decades before their effects become apparent, which is especially true for China. The T21 China 2050 is developed to study the long-term SD challenges and opportunities of the country. In its business-as-usual simulation to 2050, T21 China 2050 reveals some of the sustainability challenges facing China, including 1) aging population and labor force decline, 2) huge food imports, 3) land degradation and loss of arable land, 4) water shortages, 5) huge fossil fuel imports, and 6) carbon dioxide emissions. These SD issues are a subset of the SDGs specifically relevant to China over a time horizon well beyond 2030. The model is then used to test possible policy interventions in these six areas under two separate scenarios: Balanced and Narrowly Focused. The major results from these two scenarios are compared with those of the business-as-usual scenario. The simulations show that by adopting certain policy measures, China's path towards SD can be further improved. It also shows that a variety of policy measures can be selected and tested with the T21 China 2050 model for exploring the future SD prospects of the country. Specific policies recommended include: extension of retirement age, adjustment of the current family planning policy, protection of agriculture land, promotion of agricultural R&D to raise yield, improvement of public transportation to slow private vehicle ownership, increased investment in renewable energy, and water conservation.

Keywords

Sustainable development planning / Scenario comparison / SDGs

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments

We thank the support by National Key Research and Development Program of China (NO. 2017YFA0604701). Dr. Steve Arquitt and Dr. Matteo Pedercini reviewed the manuscript and provided valuable edits and suggestions.

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