Assessing adaptation planning strategies of interconnected infrastructure under sealevel rise by economic analysis

Abstract

This study assesses the commonly adopted adaptation planning strategies of infrastructures in Northwest Florida (USA) based on economic analysis under different objective years. Specifically, the economic analysis considers both direct and indirect impacts of sea level rise by deploying the interdependence of infrastructures. We demonstrate the difference and significance of considering indirect economic impacts in the process of cost-benefit analysis under sea level rise. Based on the results, we recommend that the most effective strategy is partial protection of land use plus inundated transportation network upgrade, even though the total shoreline protection can make more benefits. Furthermore, we compare the performance of objective planning year from two criteria: total benefits and cost-effectiveness. The result indicates that the year 2080 could be the most economical if it is set as the objective year for the long-term infrastructure planning. The result also highlights that the economic analysis of infrastructure should be conducted over time since the total costs are distributed over many years. It is not to say that the farther the year is, the more effectiveness the strategy would be, although the total benefits would be greater.

Key words： Adaption planning strategies; Climate change; Sea-level rise; Infrastructure; Economic analysis