In September 2020, China made an official announcement that it would increase its national independent contribution, introduce more effective policies and measures, strive to achieve carbon peaking before 2030, and make every effort to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 [
1] (hereinafter referred to as the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”). This is a momentous strategical decision made by the Chinese government after thorough consideration. It is not only a broad and profound economic and social systemic change, but also a solemn commitment to the world, which is of great significance to the sustainable development of the Chinese nation and the construction of a community of shared future for mankind. The announcement of the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” is a demonstration of China’s determination and ambition to transform toward green and low-carbon development, marking the beginning of the end of the development model formed since the industrial revolution. The rise of new development paradigms will create new modernization models for mankind, and bring sustainable green prosperity to China and the world.
In the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it was further pointed out that “China should make active and prudent efforts to advance the realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, based on China’s energy and resource endowment, stick to the principle of construction before destruction, and take actions for carbon peaking in a planned and step-by-step manner. It is necessary to strive for a deeper energy revolution, strengthen the clean and efficient utilization of coal, accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system, and actively participate in global governance to address climate change [
2].”
1 Fundamental judgment and understanding of the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”
1.1 Conforming to the trend of the era for green development, achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is the only way to promote high-quality and sustainable economic and social development
“Addressing climate change is something we do out of our own will, not what others ask us to do!” Actively addressing of climate change has become a global consensus that is profoundly influencing the global value system. Driving China’s technological innovation and development transition with carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an inherent requirement for high-quality economic and social development, an inevitable requirement for high-level protection of the ecological environment, and a historical opportunity to narrow the gap with the development of major developed countries. Moreover, since China is the largest developing country in the world and a big country in global energy consumption and carbon emissions [
3], the implementation of its national strategy to actively respond to climate change and its efforts to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality will make a key and important contribution to the protection of the earth. To achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, China needs to maintain a strategic determination.
1.2 Regularity of the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”
From the energy economics data of the development of many countries, it can be seen that every developed country has encountered a turning point in the process toward modernization, where economic growth and carbon emissions are decoupled with the adjustment of industrial structure and improvement of energy efficiency. That is, the economy continues to grow, but carbon emissions no longer increase, which is called carbon peaking. For this reason, “carbon peaking” is a symbol of national progress. “Carbon peaking” is the peak emissions concurrent with high-quality economic development, the peak emissions achieved by the gradual reduction of carbon intensity due to industrial structure optimization and technological progress. It is the peak emissions aimed at carbon neutrality, rather than peak climbing, let alone scaling new heights.
Carbon neutrality is a global common development goal proposed for the purpose of addressing climate change and sustainable human development in the coming decades. After achieving carbon peaking, the adjustment of energy structure, progress in technologies, and improvement in production and lifestyle will reduce the absolute amount of greenhouse gas emissions, and achieve the balance between the remaining emissions after emission reduction and the increased carbon sink, carbon absorption, and utilization by human activities. That is called carbon neutrality. As a new engine for China’s economic and social development, carbon neutrality will create a new path with cost benefit, economic benefit and social benefit. It is in sync with the realization of the Two Centenary Goals of China, and a milestone of economic and social low-carbon transition and profound progress.
1.3 The realization of China’s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategy is faced with many difficulties and challenges, such as dramatic emission reduction, heavy transition tasks, and tight time window
According to the data of 2020, China’s total greenhouse gas emissions were 13.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, accounting for about 27% of the world, of which the total carbon dioxide emissions were 11.6 billion tons, and the emissions of energy activities were 10.1 billion tons, accounting for about 30% of global energy activity emissions.
China is already one of the high emission countries, and in the future, with the continuous growth of energy consumption caused by economic and social development, the incremental pressure of greenhouse gases will still be huge. Taking the data of 2020 as an example, China’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions were greater than 10 tons, about 1.5 times the global per capita, exceeding the per capita emissions of the European Union. China’s per capita carbon dioxide emissions were greater than 7 tons, about 1.7 times the global per capita, exceeding that in developed countries such as Britain and France.
The rather prominent problems in China lie in the fact that first, the industrial structure is complex, where the secondary industry GDP contributes to about 40%, and energy consumption accounts for about 68%. Next, the energy structure is biased toward coal, with coal consumption accounting for 56.0% of the total energy consumption in 2021. Finally, the overall efficiency is low. The time from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality in China is about 30 years, which is significantly shorter than the 50 to 70 years in developed countries. If the economic and social development and a comprehensive green and low-carbon transition of the energy system are urgently needed, a greater acceleration must be made to achieve the transition. However, the challenges are arduous.
1.4 Active exploration, proactive actions, and accelerated promotion of technological progress and development transition make high-quality carbon peaking and on-schedule carbon neutrality achievable
It is necessary to adhere to the principle of orderly peaking in industries and regions, and encourage areas that have achieve carbon peaking to no longer grow, encourage areas with plateau emissions and abundant renewable energy to achieve carbon peaking as soon as possible, and encourage industries such as steel and cement to achieve carbon peaking first. On this basis, coupled with further measures such as carbon reduction, decarbonization, and carbon removal, accelerated structural transformation and technological progress, as well as the promotion of the fundamental transformation of the development model, carbon neutrality is expected to be achieved by 2060. By then, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to drop to about 2.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, of which the carbon dioxide emissions can be controlled at about 2 billion tons. In the meantime, the total amount of carbon removal will reach about 2.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is basically equivalent to greenhouse gas emissions.
The realization of the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” is a complex system engineering, which will undergo a scientific transition process for decades, calling for in-depth management innovation, sci-tech innovation, financial support, and enterprise participation. Due to the strong policy nature, it is necessary to grasp the rhythm, be active and prudent, and prevent two tendencies, that is, to keep away the one-size-fits-all approach and inefficient transition, thus avoiding backward and ineffective investment. China should follow the principle of “construction before destruction,” handle affairs in an effective manner, and deeply promote economic and social change and progress.
2 Eight major strategies for achieving the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”
2.1 The conservation and efficiency priority strategy
China should adhere to the basic national policy of conservation and efficiency priority. “Energy conservation is the primary energy source for green and low-carbon development,” a key element in ensuring national energy supply and demand security and energy environment security. In the energy structure dominated by fossil fuels, energy conservation and efficiency improvement are the key means of emission reduction. China should adhere to including energy conservation and emission reduction as key indicators in modern energy systems and regional development plans; promote the structural adjustment, transition, upgrading, and reasonable layout of industries in an orderly manner to accelerate the reduction of “double high” industrial production capacity and improve overall energy-using efficiency; improve industrial energy-using efficiency by means of tackling and demonstrating energy-saving and carbon reduction technologies; make further efforts for sound laws and regulations on energy management, energy conservation and efficiency improvement; strengthen the formulation of energy efficiency standards, and give full play to the restrictive role of laws, regulations and standards on energy conservation; strengthen the focus on the recycling and utilization of waste heat, waste cooling, and waste energy from key energy consuming units, and improve comprehensive utilization.
Fig.1 shows the energy intensity and carbon intensity of major countries around the world in 2019. China is on the far left, followed by the global average and the levels of various developed countries. It can be seen from Fig.1 that China’s energy intensity and carbon intensity are about 1.5 times and 1.77 times of the world average respectively, which are much higher than those of developed countries. Therefore, energy intensity and carbon intensity must be reduced. The gradual decrease of these two intensities is in progress.
2.2 The energy security strategy
Great importance should be attached to energy security in the process of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. The safe and reliable substitution of new energy should be a prerequisite for the gradual decline of traditional energy. China should vigorously promote clean and efficient conversion and utilization of coal; follow the three stages of “increasing capacity while controlling coal consumption,” “controlling capacity while reducing coal consumption,” and “reducing coal consumption without reducing capacity” to plan the development path of coal-fired power; increase natural gas production while stabilizing oil production, and accelerate the development of the natural gas industry; and satisfy “reasonable demands” by means of “scientific supply.” It is very important to maintain a coordinated and complementary relationship between fossil energy and non-fossil energy, which involves multi-energy complementation, power-grid-load-storage integration, smart grid, the energy storage technology, the development of new energy, and other measures to coordinate the current and long-term energy security.
2.3 The non-fossil energy substitution strategy
It is necessary to continuously increase the proportion of non-fossil energy (nuclear + renewable energy) on the basis of the safe and reliable substitution of traditional energy with new energy. The development of nuclear energy, hydropower, PV, wind power, biomass, geothermal and other new energy sources should be accelerated, fossil energy should be gradually replaced by non-fossil energy, the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system should be accelerated, and the total consumption of fossil energy should be gradually reduced. The construction of large-scale wind power and PV bases in desert areas such as deserts and Gobi should be vigorously promoted. It is necessary to vigorously promote the development of distributed energy in central and eastern China (which can be referred to as “taking from nearby”), and if “taking from nearby areas” is not enough, it will be supplemented by “coming from afar” [
4]. According to the quantitative calculation results of different domestic expert groups, the electricity of “taking from nearby” in central and eastern China is more economical and safe, cultivating a large number of energy “producers and consumers” (both energy consumers and energy producers) who produce and consume electricity themselves, leaving energy to the people, and increasing the energy self-sufficiency rate. Large-scale development of renewable energy across provinces and regions, in combination with the complementary role of wind and solar energy, will have a smoothing effect, which can alleviate fluctuation, reduce energy storage investment, and make the spatial pattern of sources and loads more reasonable. It is necessary to carry out the construction of new rural energy systems, accelerate the development of distributed PV, biomass energy, geothermal energy, etc., so as to realize the substitution of bulk coal and other fossil fuels.
Lankao County, Henan Province, has carried out the pilot project of rural energy revolution, explored innovative energy investment models, built a multi-energy complementary distributed energy system (bio natural gas, photovoltaic, wind power, geothermal heating, garbage power generation, etc.), and realized the transformation from the original use of external coal power supply to the current use of renewable energy power generation by themselves. Moreover, the total annual electricity generation in the county is greater than the demand for its own energy and electricity. The county can meet the electricity demand of the whole county only by self-generated electricity, and there is even a surplus. The results are obvious, but so far the results are still preliminary, and problems such as “self-production and self-consumption” still need to be solved through practice.
2.4 The re-electrification strategy
Electrification is an important means to promote energy efficiency improvement and industrial structure upgrading. China should focus on the substitution of electric power and the development of electricity-made raw material fuels, and vigorously improve the electrification of key sectors. In the industrial sector, electric steelmaking and hydrogen metallurgy should be developed. In the chemical sector, the electricity-made raw material technology and the high-proportion electric energy ethylene full-process technology should be developed. In the nonferrous sector, new technologies for secondary nonferrous metal metallurgy and low-temperature and low-pressure aluminum electrolysis should be developed. In the transportation sector, the development of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles should be accelerated. In the building sector, cooking and domestic hot water electrification, as well as the heat pump heating technology should be promoted.
2.5 The resource recycling strategy
The transformation from the “no-waste cities” pilot project to a “no-waste society” should be completed. “No-waste” does not mean that there is no waste. Instead, it refers to the reduction of waste at the source and a high-proportion resource utilization, which is a typical connotation of cyclic development. Solid waste reduction and resource utilization are symbols of national progress and modernization. The pilots for the construction of “no-waste cities” will accumulate experience in the development of a circular economy, and should be gradually promoted nationwide. After making long-term unremitting efforts, the goal of a “no-waste society” will be finally realized [
5].
If China establishes a comprehensive garbage recycling and transportation system, implements an extended producer responsibility system, explores the establishment of a consumer responsibility system, reduces simple landfilling, and implement high-proportion resource utilization, the greenhouse gases generated by landfills, such as methane, will be reduced. Garbage can be burned for power generation or used for biogas, which can increase renewable energy power or biomass gas. It is necessary to make a good plan for the top-level design of key raw material recycling, so as to realize breakthroughs in the recovery technologies of key mineral raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, and ensure the safety of key mineral resources. The utilization of renewable resources in solid waste, such as metals (including ferrous and non-ferrous metals), can significantly reduce the coal consumption of metallurgy, achieving the dual effect of energy conservation and emission reduction. New types of solid waste will be generated during energy transition. For example, PV cells, new energy vehicle batteries, and wind turbines cannot be turned into garbage after expiration. If they are well recycled, they will make contributions to the realization of the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.” According to the calculation of the China Association of Circular Economy, through the development of circular economy in China, a total of about 2.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions was reduced in 2020. During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, the comprehensive contribution rate of the development of circular economy to China’s carbon emissions reduction was about 25% [
6].
2.6 The carbon sequestration strategy
Ecological carbon absorption should be combined with artificial carbon utilization to enhance the capacity and scale of carbon absorption and sequestration in ecosystems. It is necessary to increase the carbon sinks of forest, grassland, soil and wetland. China should attach importance to the research and development of carbon removal technologies such as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS), strive to reduce costs, and achieve comprehensive technical, economic and environmental benefits.
2.7 The digital strategy
It is necessary to comprehensively promote digital carbon reduction and carbon management applications, contribute to industrial upgrading and structural optimization, and advance green changes in production and lifestyle. Digitalization will play a very important role in various aspects such as energy, construction, transportation, and manufacturing.
2.8 The international cooperation strategy
Shouldering the responsibility and undertaking of a major country to build a community of shared future for mankind, China will make greater efforts to advance and deepen international cooperation.
3 Eight major implementation paths for achieving the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”
3.1 Improving the quality and efficiency of economic development, and taking the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure as an important means to achieve the decoupling of economic development from carbon emissions
It is necessary to cultivate and strengthen strategic emerging industries, promote the coordinated development of digitalization and greenization, and improve the spatial structure layout of industries.
The horizontal axis in Fig.2 is per capita GDP, representing a country’s development level, while the vertical axis is per capita carbon dioxide emissions. A comparison of Europe, Japan, the United States, Canada and other countries and China, demonstrates that in the early stages of their development, the per capita carbon dioxide emissions of these countries ascend, indicating that their per capita emissions increase with the increase of per capita GDP. It should be noted that the curve flattened when it climbed to a certain stage (about $20000 per capita). This is the case for the United States, so is it for Europe. The similar trend of these countries is attributed to the following factors. First, their industrial structure underwent significant adjustments, and in the meantime, the energy efficiency was significantly improved. From the time it flattened ($20000 per capita) to the current $40000 or 50000 per capita, the economy continues to develop, but the per capita carbon emissions no longer increase, which is a very important law. In Fig.2, China is represented by red lines and dots. It can be seen that in the early stage of development, the curve was relatively steep, and now it has reached a point above the EU data, and the development has reached the peak, reaching the level of Europe. What is “carbon peaking”? It can be understood as a turning point where the economy continues to develop, but the per capita carbon emissions no longer increase, i.e., economic development and carbon emissions are decoupled.
3.2 Building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system is the key and foundation for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality
China should adhere to the “two-wheel drive” of energy conservation and efficiency improvement, as well as the efforts from both sides of supply and consumption, and continue to promote the reduction of energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit of GDP. The energy system should be transformed toward an energy structure dominated by non-fossil energy in a safe and stable manner. The proportion of non-fossil energy should be gradually increased, from 16% now to over 32% by 2035 and over 64% by 2050. It has been proposed in China’s goverment document to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy to over 80% by 2060.
When it comes to China’s energy resource endowment, the saying “rich in coal, poor in oil, and little in gas” is often heard. This is a description of fossil energy, ignoring the abundance of the renewable energy resources in China, which is inconsistent with the current development situation and objective situation. Therefore, China needs to have a complete and accurate understanding of its energy resource endowment based on the latest practical and research data: China has abundant renewable energy resources, which are an important component of China’s energy resource endowment. The developed renewable energy in China is still less than one tenth of the technologically exploitable resources. Therefore, the resource base for low-carbon energy transition is abundant, which is also the basis of the principle of “construction before destruction” for China’s energy transition and development. It should also be noted that there is no contradiction between low-carbon transition and energy security. The utilization of renewable energy resources makes energy security within China’s own control. It is not affected by changes in international geopolitics, which is conducive to the independence and security of the energy system. Renewing the understanding of China’s energy resource endowment and laying an accurate grounded cognition for China’s energy transition is a major issue that affects China’s energy policies and strategies.
3.3 Accelerating the construction of a new-type power system with a gradually growing proportion of new energy, and safely and steadily achieving net zero emissions in the power industry
It is necessary to strengthen the horizontal multi-energy complementation and the vertical coordination and planning of energy, grid, storage, load, generation, transmission, distribution and consumption, mobilize various flexible resources, develop various commercial energy storage technologies, and achieve the safety and reliability of the new power system and the gradual increase of the proportion of new energy. High-quality economic development is inseparable from high-quality energy. Safety and reliability, economic feasibility, and green and low-carbon are three goals of an energy system, which are often referred to as the “impossible triangle.” Safety and reliability are fundamental requirements for energy systems, and only economically feasible energy will be accepted by the society, while green and low-carbon energy is the overall direction of energy transition. The new energy system called by carbon peaking and carbon neutrality must be able to gradually meet these three goals and make them a “possible triangle” before it can be called a high-quality energy system. The carbon emissions of the entire power industry are expected to peak in 2028 and achieve net zero emissions by 2060.
3.4 Utilizing electrification and deep decarbonization technologies to promote the orderly peaking and gradual neutralization of carbon emissions in the industrial sector
With the help of capacity control, process upgrading, energy efficiency improvement, energy substitution and other measures, the industrial sector is expected to reach a peak of approximately 7.9 billion tons by around 2025 and achieve a thorough emission reduction by 2060. On the premise of continuously advancing technology replacement and upgrading, electrification, and in-depth emission reduction technology research, the industrial sector is expected to reduce its direct carbon emissions to about 500 million tons by 2060, and to achieve complete removal and carbon neutrality through CCUS, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) and other technologies.
3.5 Promoting high-proportion electrification for low-carbon transition of transportation vehicles to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the transportation sector
Taking advantage of collaborative efforts in energy efficiency improvement, structural optimization, and fuel substitution, the transportation sector is expected to reach the peak between 2030 and 2035. It is necessary to improve the electrification of transport vehicles and railways, and promote the substitution of aviation fuels such as sustainable aviation fuels and hydrogen fuel cells.
3.6 Focusing on breaking through key green building technologies to achieve zero carbon emissions from building electricity and heat
China should strengthen the energy conservation of new buildings and the reconstruction and life extension of existing buildings, advocate for conservation priority, avoid “large-scale demolition and construction,” strengthen building energy-saving reconstruction, and break through and apply new technologies. Electrification should be vigorously promoted, with a focus on the development of the new “PV-Storage-DC-Flexibility” building distribution system, rural new energy systems based on rooftop PV, and intelligent charge-discharge systems for electric vehicles. It is necessary to develop clean heating and cooling technologies, including technologies related to water-heating cogeneration using nuclear power waste heat, cross-season heat storage, and electric heating pumps, and to replace coal with clean, low-carbon heating as soon as possible. The construction sector is expected to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
3.7 Making strategic plans to provide strong technical support for the “last kilometer” of carbon removal to achieve carbon neutrality
It is necessary to take multiple measures to develop carbon sink and carbon removal technologies, including forestry carbon sink, CCS, CCUS, and carbon dioxide drive, and make every effort to achieve an annual carbon removal of 2.6 billion tons by 2060. China should accelerate the development of carbon removal action plan, increase efforts in carbon removal technology research and industrial cultivation, promote carbon sink and CCS/CCUS project integration demonstration projects, and improve relevant policies and institutional systems.
3.8 Accelerating the construction of the integrated planning and assessment mechanism for pollution and carbon reduction, establishing a sound strategy, planning, policy and action system for the integration of pollution and carbon reduction, and improving and perfecting the carbon trading system
It is necessary to promote the conversion of low-carbon product value and the realization of carbon asset value, continuously expand incentive mechanisms such as the supply and consumption of green low-carbon products, and cultivate the green and low-carbon lifestyle and consumption mode of the whole society.
4 Technological innovation for achieving the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”
Facing the challenges of a large base of carbon emissions and a short time from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality, major breakthroughs in key technologies must be used to support carbon neutrality under high-quality sustainable development.
Energy sector: In terms of clean and efficient utilization of coal, there are green, intelligent and efficient development and utilization of coal, coal gasification utilization, pulverized coal preheating combustion technology, CFB high-temperature afterburning technology, etc.; in terms of nuclear power, there are controllable nuclear fusion, inherently safe nuclear power, ADS, thorium based molten salt reactor, etc.; there are also green hydrogen technologies, high-efficiency solar cells, fixed floating and full DC technologies for offshore wind power, new energy storage systems (compressed air, all-vanadium redox-flow), renewable synthetic fuels (thermal catalysis, electrocatalysis), liquid sunlight, and green methanol; as well as active support technologies for new energy generation, superconducting cables, PV-Storage-DC-Flexibility buildings, multi-energy conversion and comprehensive utilization, smart grids, and rural PV energy systems.
Industrial sector: Industrial digitalization, chemical calcining cement clinker with hydrogen energy, all-scrap electric furnace process, development and recycling of key metal minerals, etc.
Transportation sector: Sustainable aviation fuel, ship electrification, new energy vehicle grid interaction, hydrogen fuel aeroengine, hydrogen fuel cell stack, bioethanol, etc. In terms of the large-scale carbon removal technology, there is biomass energy in combination with carbon capture and sequestration, direct air carbon capture and sequestration technology, etc.
Meanwhile, it is necessary to improve the green and low-carbon sci-tech innovation system, establish the sci-tech innovation consortium, encourage industry-university-research-application joint research, academia, and research, improve the standard system for low-carbon technologies, and build data centers for the digital development of low-carbon energy.
Finally, it should be noted that carbon neutrality is an important milestone. That is right, but carbon neutrality is just a milestone, not the end. Human society needs to develop, and the future society cannot survive without the support of future energy. If viewed from the perspective of future energy, the significance and historical status of the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” will be more understandable.
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