Decoding the global anthropogenic cobalt cycle: Metabolic archetypes, network evolution and circularity potentials

Abstract

Cobalt is a key component of the global energy revolution, yet its supply chain is extremely spatially concentrated and structurally stiff. The long-term metabolic evolution of national functions within this globally coupled network is still little understood, despite the fact that current literature assesses short-term supply threats. The study aims to reconstruct the trade-linked anthropogenic cobalt cycle spanning 220 countries and regions from 2000 to 2022 by combining material flow analysis (MFA) with complex network analysis. The results show that battery electrification is driving a tremendous physical expansion that is changing the architecture of global trade into a highly polarized system. By tracking dynamic material flows, we establish distinct national metabolic archetypes with varied supply vulnerabilities. There are significant ecological externalities and unreported “shadow” extraction flows for upstream resource providers, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Despite their heavy dependence on primary imports, midstream-dominant hubs (like China) build up substantial in-use stocks, laying the groundwork for future circularity. Due to inadequate domestic recycling loops, downstream-oriented consumers, like the United States, export high-grade secondary scrap and experience significant structural leakage. We conclude that standard primary extraction tactics must be abandoned in order to secure a sustainable global cobalt supply. To create long-term systemic resilience, global governance must shift toward archetype-specific interventions, giving closed-loop secondary recovery, urban mining, and technology substitution top priority.

Keywords

material flow analysis / cobalt / trade-linked material flow / complex network analysis / circular economy / global supply chain

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Higher Education Press 2026

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