Global nickel scrap trade network vulnerability: Risks of exposure, cooperation disruptions and policy barriers

Abstract

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, the global nickel resource trade is facing mounting systemic risks. This study develops a network-based framework that integrates structural exposure risk indicators and structural stress testing based on extinction analysis to assess the vulnerability of the global scrap nickel trade network (GSNTN). Results reveal a dual-risk structure characterized by intensified direct exposure and increasing efficiency imbalance. Four simulation scenarios of cooperation disruptions and policy barriers indicate that, nations exhibiting high dependency and reachability but low constraint tend to act as high-intensity risk. In contrast, highly constrained nodes embedded in cohesive trade clusters are prone to becoming passive vulnerable receptors, forced to absorb concentrated systemic pressure. Notably, some low-trade value intermediary countries act as disruption amplifiers. The findings highlight the vulnerability of the GSNTN, emphasizing that major countries should strengthen cooperation and avoid conflicts to ensure the stable operation of the supply chain.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

scrap nickel trade network / critical material supply chains / network vulnerability / extinction analysis / stress testing

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