Technological diffusion and cooperation in emission reduction alliances: Reshaping regional paths to low-carbon development

Abstract

Amid escalating climate pressures and uneven regional development, cross-regional technology cooperation has become essential for coordinated low-carbon transitions. This study proposes a novel “knowledge-equipment-institution” synergy framework to address gaps in understanding technology diffusion mechanisms and their emission reduction impacts within China’s regional diversity. Four regional cooperation alliances are identified, distinguishing between technology frontier and backward provinces. A multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed to assess cooperation outcomes. Two technology diffusion channels are integrated in the model: knowledge spillovers and machine and equipment (M&E) trade. Our findings reveal a fundamental trade-off between short-term efficiency and long-term resilience. Cooperation through M&E trade yields immediate energy saving and GDP growth benefits, but its long-term effectiveness is constrained. In contrast, cooperation via knowledge spillovers, despite modest short-term economic costs, fosters greater long-term adaptive capacity. The effectiveness of cooperation is highly heterogeneous across regions. For instance, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei–North-east alliance shows fluctuating carbon productivity, while the Yangtze River Economic Belt experiences productivity losses due to heavy industry lock-in. Ultimately, we find that a win-win dynamic is achievable, where technology frontier provinces accelerate industrial upgrading (tertiary sector share + 0.15%) and backward provinces enhance production efficiency. However, a sustained partnership hinges on the backward provinces’ commitment to enhancing their own absorptive capacity to avoid “free-riding” and low-level equilibrium traps. The findings provide a quantitative basis for designing differentiated and phased regional cooperation strategies to support adaptive climate governance.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

technology diffusion / carbon emission reduction / technical cooperation alliances / knowledge capital / machinery-equipment trade

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