Pathways to achieve the dual targets of carbon neutrality and air quality in Southern China

Abstract

Realizing the 2060 carbon neutrality target and air quality goals simultaneously is a common challenge for provinces in China aiming for sustainable development. This study examines the costs and benefits of achieving these dual targets in six southern Chinese provinces. Using a multi-model assessment approach—comprising the economic IMED|CGE model, the environmental GAINS model, and the IMED|HEL health risk assessment model—this study captures the uneven air quality and health burdens associated with inter-regional economic connections. We found that achieving carbon neutrality significantly improves air quality and provides health co-benefits through rapid energy system transformation. However, there is substantial provincial heterogeneity in the pathways chosen to reduce pollution and carbon emissions. As the potential of end-of-pipe control measures diminishes, stricter air quality standards will depend increasingly on profound transformations in energy and economic systems driven by carbon neutrality goals. Carbon reduction policies will reshape trade structures, altering the flow of embodied carbon dioxide (CO₂) and air pollutants. Additionally, provincial carbon quotas significantly influence the health-related net benefits of carbon reduction, as GDP losses are sensitive to the allocation of these quotas. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of simultaneously achieving CO₂ emission reduction and air quality improvement. Policymakers should integrate air quality targets with low-carbon development objectives when creating regional blueprints for green transformation, thereby aligning air pollution and carbon reduction management organically.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

carbon neutrality / air quality / co-benefits / IMED model / GAINS model

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