Analysis and countermeasures of natural gas development in China

Abstract

Natural gas has become a transitional bridge from fossil to green and clean energy worldwide. The importance of natural gas utilization in energy structure optimization and green development is no exception for China. However, the supply of China’s natural gas limits the country’s demand with three factors. (1) China’s natural gas resource is relatively rich, but its quality is poor with deep burial depth. Therefore, the annual plateau yield of natural gas cannot be high, with an estimated value of approximately 260–270 ×10⁹ m³. (2) The demand for natural gas in China’s economic development is growing rapidly. The peak demand is estimated to be approximately 550–650 ×10⁹ m³ per year or even higher. The import volume of natural gas will soon exceed that of domestic self-produced gas. (3) Natural gas is a necessity closely related to livelihood. Particularly, a shortage in natural gas supply affects social stability. Therefore, its external dependency should be under 50% and not exceed 60%. In this study, the future situation of China’s natural gas is forecasted, and relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed in accordance with research on China’s natural gas resource potential, production trend, supply-demand link, and gas supply safety factors.

Keywords

natural gas / yield / consumption / external dependency / security situation

References

[1] Gu Y, Bai J L (2019). More than 230 billion cubic meters of natural gas has been transferred to the downstreams from the main source of the West-East Gas Pipeline. Xinhua News Agency. Available at: www.xinhuanet.com/2019-06/02/

[2] Guo J F, Gao S J, Zhao W Z,Dong D Z, Li J Z (2015). Shale gas in China has already met the conditions for large-scale commercial development. China Economic Times, 0420(005) (in Chinese)

[3] International Energy Agency (IEA) (2018). Market Report Series: Gas 2018. IEA. Available at: webstore.iea.org/

[4] International Gas Union (IGU) (2018). Global Gas Report 2018. IGU. Available at: www.igu.org/publication/302124/31

[5] Jia A L (2018). Progress and prospects of natural gas development technologies in China. Natural Gas Industry, 38(4): 77–86 (in Chinese)

[6] Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China (2017). China Mineral Resources 2016. Beijing: Geological Publishing House (in Chinese)

[7] State Council of the People’s Republic of China (2018). Three-Year Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense. Beijing: State Council of the People’s Republic of China (in Chinese)

[8] The Oil and Gas Department of National Energy Administration, The Resources and Environmental Policy Institute of Development Research Center of the State Council, Strategic Research Center of Oil and Gas Resources of Ministry of Natural Resources (2018). China Natural Gas Development Report (2018). Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press (in Chinese)

[9] Weng W B (1984). Fundamentals of Forecasting Theory. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press (in Chinese)

[10] Yang G, Liu X L (2018). Analysis on China’s natural gas development situation and policy in 2017 and prospects for 2018. Energy of China, 40(1): 15–18 (in Chinese)

[11] Yang J H (2018). Analysis of sustainable development of natural gas market in China. Natural Gas Industry, 38(4): 145–152 (in Chinese)

[12] Zhao W Z, Dong D Z, Li J Z, Zhang G S (2012a). The resource potential and future status in natural gas development of shale gas in China. Strategic Study of CAE, 14(7): 46–52 (in Chinese)

[13] Zhao W Z, Wang H J, Bian C S, Wang Z C, Liu G D (2012b). Large-scale accumulation characteristics and distribution law of natural gas resources in low porosity and permeability reservoirs in China. Strategic Study of CAE, 14(6): 31–39 (in Chinese)

[14] Zhao W Z, Hu S Y, Li J Z, Wang H J, Wang Z Y, Bian C S (2013). Changes and enlightenment in the field of China’s onshore oil/gas exploration—experience and perception in the past decade. China Petroleum Exploration, 18(4): 1–10 (in Chinese)

[15] Zhao W Z, Li J Z, Yang T, Wand S F, Huang J L (2016). Geological difference and its significance of marine shale gas in Southern China. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 43(4): 499–510 (in Chinese)

[16] Zhao W Z, Wang H J, Qian K (2009). Progress of coal-formed gas geological theory and its status in natural gas industry in China. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 36(3): 280–289 (in Chinese)

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2019 Higher Education Press