Study on Path to Alleviate Fiscal Pressure from Pension Insurance Funds: Background to the Implementation of the National Pooling System Based on Inter-Regional Fund Surplus and Deficit Adjustment

Abstract

In January 2022, China introduced a national pooling system for pension insurance fund, with the objective of inter-regional fund surplus and deficit adjustment. With the ongoing trend of population aging, can the national pooling and adjustment system operate sustainably? What level of fiscal obligations does it entail? This is related to the long-term stability of pension insurance fund and the whole social security system. This paper employs econometric and actuarial models to assess the sustainability of the national pooling and adjustment system under five scenarios: (1) not introducing any policy interventions; (2) implementing parameter reforms such as expanding pension insurance coverage, progressively extending retirement age, and enhancing collection rates; (3) transferring state-owned capital from central state-owned enterprises to strengthen the social security fund; (4) transitioning the national pooling and adjustment system from turning over current surplus to accumulated surplus; and (5) implementing all parameter reforms, transferring state-owned capital, and turning over accumulated surpluses. The results suggest that a coordinated implementation of reform measures like pension insurance parameter adjustments, reallocation of state-owned capital to enhance social security funds, and leveraging the national pooling and adjustment system for turning over accumulated surplus can ensure the sustainability of the system and significantly alleviate fiscal pressures.

Keywords

pension insurance / national pooling / surplus turnover / fiscal responsibility

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2024 Higher Education Press