Stroke burden and epidemiological trends in Saudi Arabia: 1990–2021

Abstract

Aim: Stroke represents a leading cause of mortality and disability globally, yet comprehensive epidemiological analyses for Saudi Arabia remain limited. This study aimed to analyze temporal trends in stroke incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2021, examine stroke subtype distributions and risk factor attributions, and compare findings with regional and international benchmarks.

Methods: We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study data for Saudi Arabia, supplemented by systematic review findings and hospital-based registry data. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), mortality rates (ASMRs), and DALY rates were extracted for ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage. Annual percent change (APC) was calculated using Joinpoint regression. Risk factor attribution was analyzed using comparative risk assessment methodology. Poisson regression models examined sex differences.

Results: The pooled annual stroke incidence in Saudi Arabia was 29 per 100,000 population (95% CI: 15–47). Ischemic stroke predominated, comprising 79–87% of cases. Age-standardized DALYs showed significant yearly decreases of 9.28 per 100,000 (95% CI: 6.31–12.26, p < 0.001). The age-standardized death rate in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was 87.7 per 100,000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 78.2–97.6] in 2019, representing a 27.8% regional decrease from 1990. Mean age at first stroke in Saudi Arabia was 63 years—six years younger than Western populations. Hypertension (57.7%), diabetes mellitus (49.4%), and obesity (42.0%) were the major modifiable risk factors. Intravenous thrombolysis utilization remained critically low at 1–3.6%.

Conclusions: Despite declining mortality and DALYs, Saudi Arabia faces a substantial stroke burden characterized by a younger onset age and significant treatment gaps. Achieving Vision 2030 health targets requires accelerated primary prevention addressing metabolic risk factors and expansion of acute stroke treatment capacity nationwide.

Keywords

stroke / cerebrovascular disease / epidemiology / Saudi Arabia / Global Burden of Disease

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