GNSS constraints on the Jakarta fault, Indonesia: Resolving slip rate and seismic hazard potential

Abstract

The characteristics of the active faults in the region around the megacity of Jakarta are poorly understood. This study investigates slip rate of the Jakarta Fault using new GNSS data obtained from campaign measurements conducted between 2019 and 2023. This is a recently discovered active fault that forms part of the broader Baribis Fault system, which runs across most of northern Java. The Jakarta Fault cuts across the southern portion of Jakarta, a city with over 32 million people in the metropolitan region. In this study, we apply a 2-D screw dislocation model to the north-south component of the GNSS velocities, which are projected onto a profile perpendicular to the approximately east-west trending fault. Our analysis estimates a fault slip rate of 3.2 mm/yr, with a locking depth of 7.2 km and a dip angle of 63◦. Previous studies have estimated the fault length to be approximately 50 km, with a return period of around 210 years. By combining this information with our findings, we estimate that a potential earthquake of magnitude between 6.49 and 6.54 could occur on the fault. Our research highlights the active deformation occurring along the Jakarta Fault, emphasizing the urgent need for greater attentions from stakeholders, as an earthquake of this magnitude could pose significant seismic risks to the Jakarta region.

Keywords

Jakarta fault / Slip rate / Locking depth / Dip angle / GNSS / Seismic hazard

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Endra Gunawan: Writing – review & editing, Writing – original draft, Visualization, Validation, Supervision, Software, Resources, Project administration, Methodology, Investigation, Funding acquisition, Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization. Sri Widiyantoro: Writing – original draft, Resources, Project administration, Conceptualization. Ekbal Hussain: Writing – original draft, Visualization, Validation, Software, Investigation, Formal analysis, Conceptualization. Nuraini Rahma Hanifa: Writing – original draft, Validation, Resources, Project administration, Investigation, Conceptualization. Moh Fifik Syafiudin: Writing – original draft, Resources, Project administration, Data curation. Sidik Tri Wibowo: Writing – original draft, Resources, Investigation, Data curation.

Data and resources

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to in the work reported in this paper.

Author agreement and Acknowledgments

All authors agree for this publication. Figures were generated using the Generic Mapping Tool (GMT) software provided by Wessel et al. (2019). This work is partially funded by the Excellent Research of the Institut Teknologi Bandung, and the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan) under Memorandum of Agreement, Number PKS-3/KPHL/2024 and 842/IT1.B07/KS.00/2024. Ekbal Hussain is supported by the British Geological Survey International NC programme “Geoscience to tackle Global Environmental Challenges,” NE/X006255/1. Ekbal Hussain publishes with permission from the Executive Director of the British Geological Survey.

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