China’s dynamic emission pathways and ecosystem carbon storage during 2018–2060: a cross-system integrated assessment

Abstract

Achieving “carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060” is pivotal to China’s sustainable development and requires rigorous, comprehensive assessments of carbon budget magnitudes and trajectories. Leveraging advanced datasets and a coupled ecological–energy–environmental–economic modeling framework, this study quantifies China’s dynamic carbon budget and delineates energy transition pathways for 2018–2060. Results show that the SSP1‑2.6 pathway substantially curbs anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and fosters a more balanced regional carbon budget. Under the RES scenario, wind and solar emerge as the dominant energy sources, while carbon tax–funded subsidies yield short‑term GDP gains of 0.01%–0.03%. We further find that coordinating ecosystem carbon sequestration with a combined policy package—“wind and solar power substitution + carbon tax reinvestment”—produces synergistic benefits: strengthening terrestrial carbon sinks, reducing anthropogenic emissions, and advancing integrated solutions for ecological restoration and climate governance across China’s territorial space.

Keywords

Integrated assessment model / Machine learning / Energy transition / SSP scenarios / CGE / Clean energy

References

[1] Ang BW, Wang H. Index decomposition analysis with multidimensional and multilevel energy data. Energy Econ, 2015, 51: 67-76

[2] Ballantyne AP, Ciais P, Miller B. Cautious optimism and incremental goals toward stabilizing atmospheric CO₂. Earths Future, 2018, 6(12): 1632-1637

[3] Cao X, Liu C, Wu M, Li Z, Wang Y, Wen Z. Heterogeneity and connection in the spatial–temporal evolution trend of China’s energy consumption at provincial level. Appl Energy, 2023, 336: 120842

[4] Chen G, Li X, Liu X. Global land projection based on plant functional types with a 1-km resolution under socio-climatic scenarios. Sci Data, 2022, 9: 125

[5] Chen X, Dong W, Yang L, Yang Q. Scenario-based robust capacity planning of regional integrated energy systems considering carbon emissions. Renew Energy, 2023, 207: 35975

[6] Chen M, Gao L, Guo Z, Dong Y, Moallemi EA, Xu Y, Li K, Lin W, Yang J, Xu W, Pedercini M, Bryan BA. A cost-effective climate mitigation pathway for China with co-benefits for sustainability. Nat Commun, 2024, 15(1): 16

[7] Dai HC, Masui T, Matsuoka Y, Fujimori S. Assessment of China’s climate commitment and non-fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid AIM/CGE model. Energy Pol, 2011, 9(5): 2875-2887

[8] Dong H, Dai H, Geng Y, Fujita T, Liu Z, Xie Y, Wu R, Fujii M, Masui T, Tang L. Exploring impact of carbon tax on China’s CO 2 reductions and provincial disparities. Renew Sust Energy Rev, 2017, 77: 596-603

[9] Feng F, Wang KC. Merging High-Resolution Satellite Surface Radiation Data with Meteorological Sunshine Duration Observations over China from 1983 to 2017. Remote Sens, 2021, 13: 602

[10] Fikru M, Belaïd F, Ma H. Carbon capture and renewable energy policies: Could policy harmonization be a puzzle piece to solve the electricity crisis. Energy Econ, 2024, 136: 107753

[11] Friedlingstein P, O’Sullivan M, Jones M, Andrew R, Hauck J, Landschützer P, et al. . Global carbon budget 2024. Earth Syst Sci Data, 2025, 17(3): 965-1039

[12] Gao M, Xu R, Huang J, Su B, Jiang S, Shi P, Yang H, Xing Y, Wang D, Jiang H, Kundzewicz ZW, Jiang T (2023) Increase of carbon storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Perspective from land-use change under global warming. J Clean Prod, 414:137540. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137540

[13] Gidden MJ, Gasser T, Grassi G, et al. . Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks. Nature, 2023, 624: 102-108

[14] Han JY, Miao CY, Gou JJ, Zheng HY, Zhang Q, Guo XY. A new daily gridded precipitation dataset for the Chinese mainland based on gauge observations. Earth Syst Sci Data, 2023, 15(7): 3147-3161

[15] He Y, Liang Y, Liu L, Yin Z, Huang J. Loss of green landscapes due to urban expansion in China. Resour Conserv Recycl, 2023, 199: 107228

[16] He Y, Liang Y, Shen C, Bu X, Wang J. Spatial and temporal trade-offs between carbon storage and crop production in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems, 1995–2100. J Nat Conserv, 2025, 87: 126989

[17] Hu Y, Ren S, Wang Y, Chen X. Can carbon emission trading scheme achieve energy conservation and emission reduction? Evidence from the industrial sector in China. Energy Econ, 2020, 85: 104590

[18] Hu X, Chen Y, Li P, Wu H, Wang Q, Wang C, Wu F. Synergizing human health and climate benefits in China’s Environmental Protection Tax. Cell Rep Sustain, 2024, 1(11): 100260

[19] Jia Z, Lin B (2022) CEEEA2.0 model: A dynamic CGE model for energy-environment-economy analysis with available data and code. Energy Econ. 112, 106117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106117

[20] Jiang T, Su B, Jing C, Wang Y, Huang J, Guo H, Yang Y, Wang G, Luo Y (2024) National and provincial population and economy projection databases under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-5)_v2. Science Data Bank https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.01683

[21] Kazlou T, Cherp A, Jewell J. Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets. Nat Clim Change, 2024, 14(10): 1047-1055

[22] Klenert D, Mattauch L, Combet E, Edenhofer O, Hepburn C, Rafaty R, Stern N. Making carbon pricing work for citizens. Nat Clim Change, 2018, 8(8): 669-677

[23] Li W, Liang Y, Liu L. Assessment of carbon reduction potential for China’s energy transition under the dual carbon target. Energy Clim Change, 2026, 7: 100243

[24] Liang Y, Hashimoto S, Liu L. Integrated assessment of land-use/land-cover dynamics on carbon storage services in the Loess Plateau of China from 1995 to 2050. Ecol Indic, 2021, 120: 106939

[25] Liu F, Wu H, Zhao Y, Li D, Yang J, Song X, Shi Z, Zhu A, Zhang G (2022) Mapping high resolution National Soil Information Gridsof China. Sci Bulletin, 67:328–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.10.013

[26] Liu Y, Lu Y. The Economic impact of different carbon tax revenue recycling schemes in China: A model-based scenario analysis. Appl Energ, 2015, 141: 96-105

[27] Lo AY, Chen K. Business participation in the development of a Chinese emission trading scheme. Energy Pol, 2020, 140: 111432

[28] Mersch M, Caton P, Markides CN, Mac Dowell N. Energy import security in optimal decarbonization pathways for the UK energy system. Cell Rep Sustain, 2024, 1(10): 100236

[29] NBS (National Bureau of Statistics of China) (2018) National Input Output Table 2018. https://data.stats.gov.cn/files/html/quickSearch/trcc/trcc09.html

[30] Ouyang Z, Zheng H, Xiao, Yi, Polasky S, Liu J, Xu W, Wang Q, Zhang L, Xiao, Yang, Rao E, Jiang L, Lu F, Wang X, Yang G, Gong S, Wu B, Zeng Y, Yang W, Daily GC. Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital. Science, 2016, 352: 1455-1459

[31] Pedregosa F, Varoquaux G, Gramfort A, Michel V, Thirion B, Grisel O, Blondel M, Prettenhofer P, Weiss R, Dubourg V, Vanderplas J, Passos A, Cournapeau D, Brucher M, Perrot M, Duchesnay É. Scikit-learn: Machine Learning in Python. J Mach Learn Res, 2011, 12: 2825-2830

[32] Piao S, Fang J, Ciais P, Peylin P, Huang Y, Sitch S, Wang T. The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China. Nature, 2009, 458: 1009-1013

[33] Piao S, Yue C, Ding J, Guo Z. Perspectives on the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the ‘carbon neutrality’ strategy. Sci China Earth Sci, 2022, 65: 1-9

[34] Qi L, Zhao L, Zhang Y, Jiang S, Lin X, Ren Y. Computable general equilibrium analysis of neutral carbon trading scheme and revenue recycling impacts on income distribution in China. Humanit Soc Sci Commun, 2024, 11(1): 131

[35] Tang X, Zhao X, Bai Y, Tang Z, Wang W, Zhao Y, Wan H, Xie Z, Shi X, Wu B, Wang G, Yan J, Ma K, Du S, Li S, Han S, Ma Y, Hu H, He N, Yang Y, Han W, He H, Yu G, Fang J, Zhou G. Carbon pools in China’s terrestrial ecosystems: New estimates based on an intensive field survey. Proc Natl Acad Sci, 2018, 115: 4021-4026

[36] Tang W, Zhou J, Ma J, Wang Z, Ding L, Zhang X, Zhang X. Earth Syst Sci Data, 2024, 16: 387-419

[37] Wang MR, Janssen ABG, Bazin J, Strokal M, Ma L, Kroeze C. Accounting for interactions between Sustainable Development Goals is essential for water pollution control in China. Nat Commun, 2022, 13(1): 730

[38] Wang B, Xu S, Wang Z, Shan Y, Zhang B, Li H, Deng N, Shi H. Retrofitting Coal Power Units with Biomass and Coal Cofiring Intensifies Air Pollution and Health Risks. Environ Sci Technol, 2024, 58(49): 21523-21535

[39] Xia X, Xia J, Chen X, Fan L, Liu S, Qin Y (2023) Reconstructing long-term forest cover in China by fusing national forest inventory and 20 land use and land cover data sets. Geophys Res -Biogeosci 128(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG007101

[40] Xia X, Ren P, Wang X, Liu D, Chen X, Dan L, He B, He H, Ju W, Liang M, Lu X, Peng J, Qin Z, Xia J, Zheng B, Wei J, Yue X, Yu G, Piao S, Yuan W. The carbon budget of China: 1980–2021. Sci Bull, 2024, 69(1): 114-124

[41] Xu Q, Liu K. Hero or Devil: A comparison of different carbon tax policies for China. Energy, 2024, 306: 132340

[42] Yalew SG, van Vliet MTH, Gernaat DEHJ, Ludwig F, Miara A, Park C, Byers E, De Cian E, Piontek F, Iyer G, Mouratiadou I, Glynn J, Hejazi M, Dessens O, Rochedo P, Pietzcker R, Schaeffer R, Fujimori S, Dasgupta S, Mima S, da Silva SRS, Chaturvedi V, Vautard R, van Vuuren DP. Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios. Nat Energy, 2020, 5(10): 794-802

[43] Yang J, Huang X. Earth Syst Sci Data, 2024, 13(1): 3907-3925

[44] Yao Y, Li Z, Wang T, Chen A, Wang X, Du M, Jia G, Li Y, Li H, Luo W, Ma Y, Tang Y, Wang H, Wu Z, Yan J, Zhang X, Zhang Y, Zhang Y, Zhou G, Piao S. A new estimation of China’s net ecosystem productivity based on eddy covariance measurements and a model tree ensemble approach. Agric Meteorol, 2018, 253: 84-93

[45] Yu S, Horing J, Liu Q, Dahowski R, Davidson C, Edmonds J, Liu B, McJeon H, McLeod J, Patel P, Clarke L. CCUS in China’s mitigation strategy: insights from integrated assessment modeling. Int J Greenh Gas Control, 2019, 84: 204-218

[46] Zhang Z. Carbon emissions trading in China: the evolution from pilots to a nationwide scheme. Clim Pol, 2015, 15: S104-S26

[47] Zhao H, Chang J, Havlík P, van Dijk M, Valin H, Janssens C. China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment. Nat Sustain, 2021, 4(12): 1042-1051

[48] Zheng C, Jia L, Hu G. Global land surface evapotranspiration monitoring by ETMonitor model driven by multi-source satellite earth observations. J Hydrol, 2022, 613: 128444

Funding

the Open Research Fund of Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-hydrology National Observation and Research Station, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research(YSS202519)

the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Mine Ecological Effects and Systematic Restoration, MNR(MEER-2024-05)

the Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation Joint Fund Project - Meteorological Innovation and Development Joint Fund(JCZRLH20250130)

the Hubei Provincial Department of Education Philosophy and Social Science Research Project(24G093)

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s), under exclusive licence to the International Society of Energy and Environmental Science