Net benefits from regionally differentiated management of farmland nitrate and phosphorus losses in China

Abstract

Mitigating agricultural nitrate and phosphorus losses is crucial for pollution control and food security. While many studies focus on scenario analysis of mitigation potential, few are grounded in observational evidence. To address this gap, we synthesized results from 488 global in-situ measures, identifying six effective strategies that could reduce China’s farmland nitrate and phosphorus losses to water by 20.6-49.7% in 2030. We reveal that nitrate loss reduction is primarily driven by technological improvement, with optimized fertilization (e.g., rate and management) achieving 43.0% reduction. In contrast, phosphorus mitigation relies mainly on agronomic interventions, where rotation and irrigation yield 49.0% reduction. Effective management in China could achieve net annual benefits of USD11.5-13.6 billion via ecosystem preservation, improved human health, and energy savings based on 2030 projections. Agriculturally intensified zones, such as the North China Plain, could generate higher environmental benefits than coastal developed regions, while the latter show greater potential health benefits due to their higher population density. Therefore, tailoring mitigation measures to specific regions and pollutants, coupled with coordinated eco-compensation across scales, will enhance non-point source pollution control and optimize mitigation benefits.

Keywords

Non-point source pollution / Nitrate / Phosphorus / Cost–benefit analysis

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Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China(52470213)

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s), under exclusive licence to the International Society of Energy and Environmental Science