Resilience under extreme temperatures: evidence from productivity responses in China

Abstract

Climate resilience is essential to mitigate extreme weather impacts. This study examines the resilience of Chinese cities and its mechanisms through the dynamic responses of green total factor productivity (GTFP) to extreme temperature shocks. Using panel data of 272 cities from 2002 to 2021, we first construct GTFP based on the biennial non-radial Luenberger productivity index (BLPI). We then employ a two-way fixed effects model and a piecewise linear long-difference model to identify the short- and long-term effects of extreme temperatures on GTFP, where the divergence between these effects captures the climate resilience. The BLPI framework further allows a decomposition into single-factor productivities, enabling mechanism analyses of how specific production factors respond to climatic stress. The results show that, extreme temperatures significantly reduce GTFP in the short term, but not in the long run, indicating strengthened climate resilience over time. Mechanism analysis reveals that extreme heat enhances digital productivity, while extreme cold increases capital productivity, suggesting digital upgrading as an adaptation to heat stress and capital deepening as a response to cold stress. Policy and spatial heterogeneity reveal distinct resilience patterns. Broadband pilot cities adapt better to heat stress, low-carbon pilot cities resist cold stress more effectively. Regionally, southern cities show stronger heat adaptation, northern cities greater cold resilience, and eastern regions recover faster than the central and west. These findings highlight how digital transformation and factor reallocation jointly enhance urban climate resilience.

Keywords

Climate resilience / Climate change / Digital factor / GTFP

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Funding

the Major grant in National Social Sciences of China(23VRC037)

the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72033005)

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s), under exclusive licence to the International Society of Energy and Environmental Science

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