China’s regional net zero scenarios to 2060

Abstract

China’s ambitious plan to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 requires careful assessment of regional disparities in emission trajectories and zero-carbon pathways. On the basis of provincial bottom-up emission inventories and near-real-time datasets, this study shed light on the emission dynamics in 2000–2024 and emission scenarios in 2025–2060 for China’s regions. Results show pronounced spatial and sectoral heterogeneity: by 2024, national net emissions exceeded 10.6 GtCO₂, with the West and East contributing near 7.5 Gt, the Central region around 2.3 Gt, and the Northeast stabilizing around 0.8 Gt. Non-fossil energy plays an essential role in emission mitigation, contributing to Scope 4 avoided emissions that grew from 0.3 Gt in 2000 to 2.9 Gt by 2024, with the West as the fastest-growing contributors. This study further investigates the dynamics of the emissions in 2025–2060, two scenarios are developed: a Carbon Neutrality pathway, peaking around 2030 and declining to ~0.8 Gt residual emissions by 2060, and a Business-as-Usual pathway, with slower efficiency gains and residuals above 10 Gt. Findings underscore that achieving China’s dual-carbon goals requires regionally differentiated strategies, rapid expansion of renewables, and stronger mechanisms linking developed and underdeveloped provinces to prevent carbon lock-in and ensure an equitable zero-carbon transition.

Keywords

Carbon neutrality / Regional disparities / Emission scenarios / China 2060 target

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