Factors affecting CO₂ emissions in the global power sector: a spatial-temporal analysis

Abstract

The power sector plays a crucial role in promoting global carbon neutrality. This study investigates the key drivers behind the low-carbon transition of the power sector in 78 countries from 1990 to 2022, using a comprehensive analytical framework that integrates both temporal and spatial index decomposition methods. From a temporal perspective, the primary driver of carbon emission trends is the growing electricity consumption in developing nations. Mitigation strategies have evolved from improving the efficiency of thermal power generation to restructuring the energy mix. Spatially, differences in carbon intensity are primarily influenced by variations in energy composition, particularly the distribution and types of thermal and non-fossil energy sources. Our findings highlight that Europe has made significant progress in reducing its carbon intensity, while Asia faces considerable challenges, largely due to its continued reliance on fossil fuels. The pathway to low-carbon development varies across countries, depending on factors such as resource endowments, technological capabilities, and social acceptance. Nations rich in hydropower typically prioritize its use, while only a limited number have adopted nuclear energy, influenced by both technical feasibility and public trust in nuclear safety. In countries with limited hydropower and nuclear resources, wind and solar power often emerge as the primary alternatives, though their adoption is heavily influenced by local climatic and weather conditions. These findings lead to three key policy implications: first, using carbon intensity as a relative measure offers a more equitable and meaningful way to assess the progress of developing countries, balancing their development needs with global decarbonization goals; second, national strategies for low-carbon transitions should be tailored to each country’s unique context. More emphasis should be placed on transforming the overall energy structure, rather than focusing solely on improving thermal power efficiency; third, for developing countries with limited hydropower and nuclear resources, international cooperation through technology sharing, financial support and capacity building is crucial to eliminating development barriers and promoting sustainable energy development.

Keywords

Carbon dioxide emissions / Power sector / Temporal decomposition / Spatial decomposition / Energy transition

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Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China(72374018)

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s), under exclusive licence to the International Society of Energy and Environmental Science