Incorporating energy-metal nexus from supply side to reveal global energy security

Abstract

The global energy transition will require both fossil fuels and renewable energy, alongside metals essential for low-carbon technologies. Given the growing role of energy-metal nexus playing in energy system, the availability of these resources is vital to energy security. While fossil fuel and metal supply patterns have been studied seperatedly, few have integrated both into a comprehensive energy security assessment. To address this gap, we examine how fossil and metal supplies affect global energy security using a two-phase assessment framework. Firstly, we analyze the supply concentration of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) and copper using the Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI). Secondly, we assess energy security by weighing the HHI based on the global historic energy mix. Key findings include: (a) Copper production is geographically more concentrated (61 countries) compared to fossil fuels (73–101 countries); (b) Oil and coal supply concentrations have increased, while natural gas and copper concentrations have decreased; (c) Energy security risks have risen, with mineral supply concentration increasing by 48% from 2000 to 2022; (d) Global energy security has experienced decrease from 2000 to 2022, while it is projected to recover by the middle of this century. These highlights the need for further research on the interplay between fossil fuels and metal extraction in the low-carbon transition.

Keywords

Supply concentration / Energy-metal nexus / Energy security

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Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China(72404277)

China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2023M743871)

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)